The loss‐bet paradox: Actuaries, accountants, and other numerate people rate numerically inferior gambles as superior
The loss‐bet paradox: Actuaries, accountants, and other numerate people rate numerically inferior gambles as superior
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损失赌注悖论：精算师、会计师和其他计算人员将数字上较差的赌博视为较高的赌博
DOI：
10.1002/bdm.2085
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Tiede, Kevin E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Peters, Ellen;Fennema, M. G.;Tiede, Kevin E.
心理学家令人信服地证明，偏好并不总是稳定的，相反，通常是根据判断或决策背景中可用的信息“构建”的。在与专家（研究 1 和研究 2 中分别为会计师和精算师）和不同的非专业人群（研究 3 和 4）进行的 4 项研究中，证据表明，计算能力强的人比计算能力差的人更有可能通过将数字较低的赌注评为优越来构建自己的偏好（即赌注效应）。因此，这种效应超出了大学生样本范围，并且偏好构建因计算能力而异。然而，与之前关于偏好构建的想法相反，高专业知识和高能力（而不是低能力）始终与矛盾现象相关。包括研究 3 对任务的实验修改在内的所有研究结果都支持假设的数字比较过程（而不是缺乏对货币结果和概率的专业知识或对数字的关注与算术相关的差异）作为该效应的根本原因。研究 4 的说明并未削弱投注效应，即考虑用投注奖金购买什么。任务结果与自由响应编码相结合支持了这样一种观点，即高度计算能力的参与者有系统且持久的倾向进行简单和复杂的数字运算，以驱动他们的判断（即使在控制非数字智力之后）。讨论了 3 种类型的双过程理论的含义。结果与默认干预理论不一致，与模糊痕迹理论一致或不清楚，与交互理论一致。
Psychologists have convincingly demonstrated that preferences are not always stable and, instead, are often “constructed” based on information available in the judgment or decision context. In 4 studies with experts (accountants and actuaries in Studies 1 and 2, respectively) and a diverse lay population (Studies 3 and 4), the evidence was consistent with the highly numerate being more likely than the less numerate to construct their preferences by rating a numerically inferior bet as superior (i.e., the bets effect). Thus, the effect generalizes beyond a college student sample, and preference construction differs by numeracy. Contrary to prior thinking about preference construction, however, high expertise and high ability (rather than low) consistently related to the paradoxical phenomenon. Results across studies including Study 3's experimental modifications of the task supported the hypothesized number comparison process (and not a lack of expertise with monetary outcomes and probabilities or numeracy‐related differences in attention to numbers) as the effect's underlying cause. The bets effect was not attenuated by Study 4's instructions to think about what would be purchased with bet winnings. Task results combined with free‐response coding supported the notion that highly numerate participants have a systematic and persistent inclination for doing simple and complex number operations that drive their judgments (even after controlling for nonnumeric intelligence). Implications for 3 types of dual‐process theories are discussed. The results were inconsistent with default‐interventionist theories, consistent or unclear with respect to fuzzy trace theory, and consistent with interactive theories.
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影响因子：
7.2
作者：
C. Troutman;J. Shanteau
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
1.4
作者：
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DOI：
10.1037//0003-066x.49.8.709
发表时间：
1994
期刊：
The American psychologist
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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发表时间：
2003
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影响因子：
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作者：
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Graffeo M;Polonio L;Bonini N
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