Covariation between the physiological and behavioral components of pathogen transmission: host heterogeneity determines epidemic outcomes
Covariation between the physiological and behavioral components of pathogen transmission: host heterogeneity determines epidemic outcomes
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病原体传播的生理和行为成分之间的协变：宿主异质性决定流行病结果
DOI：
10.1111/oik.04527
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Craft, Meggan E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
White, Lauren A.;Forester, James D.;Craft, Meggan E.
尽管在宿主-病原体系统中，接触率、生理学和对感染的行为反应的异质性都已被经验证明，但人们对个体行为和生理学变化之间的相互作用如何影响群体水平上的病原体传播知之甚少。本研究的目的是评估传播的行为和生理成分之间的协变如何影响宿主人群的流行结果。我们使用基于个体的动态网络模型测试了与易感性、传染性和感染状态协变的接触率的后果，在该模型中，个体根据其行为倾向和感染状态开始和终止与同种接触。我们的研究结果表明，异质性的生理和随后的生理与接触率的协变可以有力地影响流行动力学。总体而言，我们发现：1）易感性和传染性的个体差异可以降低预期的最大流行率，并增加流行病的变异性; 2）当接触率和易感性或传染性负协变时，流行病在整个人群中传播所需的时间要长得多，即使对于高传染性病原体，流行病传播的速度也会受到抑制;和3）由于感染引起的行为变化导致的接触率降低可以防止病原体到达大多数人群。这些影响是最强的理论病原体与较低的传播率和人口中观察到的接触率的变化是较高的，这表明这种异质性可能是最重要的传染性较低，更慢性疾病的野生动物。了解何时以及如何模拟病原体传播的变异性是疾病生态学的关键下一步。
Although heterogeneity in contact rate, physiology, and behavioral response to infection have all been empirically demonstrated in host–pathogen systems, little is known about how interactions between individual variation in behavior and physiology scale‐up to affect pathogen transmission at a population level. The objective of this study is to evaluate how covariation between the behavioral and physiological components of transmission might affect epidemic outcomes in host populations. We tested the consequences of contact rate covarying with susceptibility, infectiousness, and infection status using an individual‐based, dynamic network model where individuals initiate and terminate contacts with conspecifics based on their behavioral predispositions and their infection status. Our results suggest that both heterogeneity in physiology and subsequent covariation of physiology with contact rate could powerfully influence epidemic dynamics. Overall, we found that 1) individual variability in susceptibility and infectiousness can reduce the expected maximum prevalence and increase epidemic variability; 2) when contact rate and susceptibility or infectiousness negatively covary, it takes substantially longer for epidemics to spread throughout the population, and rates of epidemic spread remained suppressed even for highly transmissible pathogens; and 3) reductions in contact rate resulting from infection‐induced behavioral changes can prevent the pathogen from reaching most of the population. These effects were strongest for theoretical pathogens with lower transmissibility and for populations where the observed variation in contact rate was higher, suggesting that such heterogeneity may be most important for less infectious, more chronic diseases in wildlife. Understanding when and how variability in pathogen transmission should be modelled is a crucial next step for disease ecology.
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影响因子：
8.8
作者：
Restif O;Hayman DT;Pulliam JR;Plowright RK;George DB;Luis AD;Cunningham AA;Bowen RA;Fooks AR;O'Shea TJ;Wood JL;Webb CT
通讯作者：
Webb CT
DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2664.2007.01439.x
发表时间：
2008-04-01
期刊：
The Journal of applied ecology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Eisinger D;Thulke HH
通讯作者：
Thulke HH
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
J. Wilson White;A. Rassweiler;J. Samhouri;A. Stier;C. White
通讯作者：
J. Wilson White;A. Rassweiler;J. Samhouri;A. Stier;C. White
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Begon, M;Bennett, M;Turner, J
通讯作者：
Turner, J
昼夜洄游珊瑚礁鱼与寄生虫感染相关的运动减少
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
R. Welicky;P. Sikkel
通讯作者：
P. Sikkel