Spatial pattern formation facilitates eradication of infectious diseases.
Spatial pattern formation facilitates eradication of infectious diseases.
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2664.2007.01439.x
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发表时间：
2008-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Thulke HH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eisinger D;Thulke HH
动物传播疾病的控制是应用生态学家和公共卫生管理人员面临的一项重大挑战。为了提高成本效益，需要尽可能准确地预测控制此类病原体所需的努力。在这方面，我们回顾了过去25年来世界各地实施的狂犬病疫苗接种计划。我们将基于理论种群生态学（迄今为止控制狂犬病）的经典方法的预测与新开发的基于个体的模型进行了对比。我们的空间明确的方法允许复制的模式形成出现从病原体的传播通过其宿主人口。我们认为，一个更低的管理努力可以消除这种疾病比目前的操作。这得到了历史现场数据的经验证据的支持。根据新的预测调整控制措施将在未来的控制方案中节省三分之一的资源。预测值较低的原因是在空间排列的宿主种群中传播感染所形成的空间结构。这不是模型之间技术差异的结果。合成与应用。对于主要通过邻里互动传播的疾病，我们的研究结果表明，空间结构的出现有利于根除。这可能对现有疾病管理计划的成本效益产生重大影响，并表明在规划管理策略时必须考虑反映病原体-宿主系统空间性质的方法。
Control of animal-born diseases is a major challenge faced by applied ecologists and public health managers. To improve cost-effectiveness, the effort required to control such pathogens needs to be predicted as accurately as possible. In this context, we reviewed the anti-rabies vaccination schemes applied around the world during the past 25 years. We contrasted predictions from classic approaches based on theoretical population ecology (which governs rabies control to date) with a newly developed individual-based model. Our spatially explicit approach allowed for the reproduction of pattern formation emerging from a pathogen's spread through its host population. We suggest that a much lower management effort could eliminate the disease than that currently in operation. This is supported by empirical evidence from historic field data. Adapting control measures to the new prediction would save one-third of resources in future control programmes. The reason for the lower prediction is the spatial structure formed by spreading infections in spatially arranged host populations. It is not the result of technical differences between models. Synthesis and applications. For diseases predominantly transmitted by neighbourhood interaction, our findings suggest that the emergence of spatial structures facilitates eradication. This may have substantial implications for the cost-effectiveness of existing disease management schemes, and suggests that when planning management strategies consideration must be given to methods that reflect the spatial nature of the pathogen–host system.
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影响因子：
5.7
作者：
Baker, PJ;Harris, S;White, PCL
通讯作者：
White, PCL
DOI：
10.1007/bf02192012
发表时间：
2003-03-01
期刊：
ZEITSCHRIFT FUR JAGDWISSENSCHAFT
影响因子：
--
作者：
Bellebaum, J
通讯作者：
Bellebaum, J
影响因子：
--
作者：
Goszczynski, J
通讯作者：
Goszczynski, J
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
AUBERT, M
通讯作者：
AUBERT, M
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Bohrer, G;Shem-Tov, S;Saltz, D
通讯作者：
Saltz, D