Climate Change Influences on the Global Potential Distribution of the Mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus, Vector of West Nile Virus and Lymphatic Filariasis.
Climate Change Influences on the Global Potential Distribution of the Mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus, Vector of West Nile Virus and Lymphatic Filariasis.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0163863
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Soliman DE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Samy AM;Elaagip AH;Kenawy MA;Ayres CF;Peterson AT;Soliman DE
大多数病媒传播疾病的迅速出现可能与病媒种群的范围扩大有关。致倦库蚊say1823是西尼罗病毒、圣路易斯脑炎病毒和淋巴丝虫病的潜在媒介。我们估计了Cx的潜在分布。当前和未来气候条件下的致倦库蚊。Cx的目前电位分布。致倦库蚊在世界低纬度地区表现出高度的适应性，反映了该物种的当前分布。在北非和西欧的狭窄地带也确定了适当的条件。对未来条件的模式转移显示出与当前条件相似的潜在分布，尽管在澳大利亚南部具有更高的适用性。在30°S ~ 30°N之间对气候变化的稳定性最高。这些地区在不同的气候模式中对未来的分布潜力表现出高度一致，但在北非和中非、南亚、美国中部和欧洲东南部的预测分布潜力方面存在差异。代表性浓度路径（rcp）的模型预测差异最大的是沙特阿拉伯和欧洲。该模型预测了未来几十年该物种分布潜力的变化。
Rapid emergence of most vector-borne diseases (VBDs) may be associated with range expansion of vector populations. Culex quinquefasciatus Say 1823 is a potential vector of West Nile virus, Saint Louis encephalitis virus, and lymphatic filariasis. We estimated the potential distribution of Cx. quinquefasciatus under both current and future climate conditions. The present potential distribution of Cx. quinquefasciatus showed high suitability across low-latitude parts of the world, reflecting the current distribution of the species. Suitable conditions were identified also in narrow zones of North Africa and Western Europe. Model transfers to future conditions showed a potential distribution similar to that under present-day conditions, although with higher suitability in southern Australia. Highest stability with changing climate was between 30°S and 30°N. The areas present high agreement among diverse climate models as regards distributional potential in the future, but differed in anticipating potential for distribution in North and Central Africa, southern Asia, central USA, and southeastern Europe. Highest disparity in model predictions across representative concentration pathways (RCPs) was in Saudi Arabia and Europe. The model predictions allow anticipation of changing distributional potential of the species in coming decades.
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影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Kilpatrick, A. Marm;Randolph, Sarah E.
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