Impact of Scenario Selection on Robustness
Impact of Scenario Selection on Robustness
复制标题
场景选择对鲁棒性的影响
DOI：
10.1029/2019wr026515
复制
发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
L. Linden
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. McPhail;H. Maier;S. Westra;J. Kwakkel;L. Linden
在水资源系统的长期规划中，越来越多地使用多种合理的未来情景，而不是对未来的单一确定性或概率性预测。这些方案能够确定系统的鲁棒性-考虑在一系列合理的未来的性能-并允许评估哪些可能的未来系统配置导致更高水平的鲁棒性。有许多方法来选择场景，以前的研究已经观察到，场景的选择可能会影响系统的估计鲁棒性。然而，这些意见是轶事和定性的。本文发展了一个系统的，定量的方法来探讨的影响，场景选择的鲁棒性和决策方案的排名。该方法是在湖的问题。所获得的定量结果证实了以前的作品的定性观察，表明场景的选择是重要的，因为它有很大的影响，为每个决策方案计算的鲁棒性值。然而，我们发现，它有一个相对较小的影响，这些决策方案的排名。这意味着，尽管稳健性值存在差异，但在本案例研究中，无论获得情景的基础如何，都将达到类似的决策结果。它还揭示了方案的鲁棒性值的影响是由于复杂的相互作用与系统模型和鲁棒性指标。
Multiple plausible future scenarios are being used increasingly in preference to a single deterministic or probabilistic prediction of the future in the long‐term planning of water resources systems. These scenarios enable the determination of the robustness of a system—the consideration of performance across a range of plausible futures—and allow an assessment of which possible future system configurations result in a greater level of robustness. There are many approaches to selecting scenarios, and previous studies have observed that the choice of scenarios might affect the estimated robustness of the system. However, these observations have been anecdotal and qualitative. This paper develops a systematic, quantitative methodology for exploring the influence of scenario selection on the robustness and the ranking of decision alternatives. The methodology is illustrated on the Lake Problem. The quantitative results obtained confirm the qualitative observations of previous works, showing that the selection of scenarios is important, as it has a large influence on the robustness value calculated for each decision alternative. However, we show that it has a relatively small influence on how those decision alternatives are ranked. This implies that despite the difference in robustness values, similar decision outcomes will be reached in this case study, regardless of the basis on which the scenarios are obtained. It is also revealed that the impact of the scenarios on the robustness values is due to complex interactions with the system model and robustness metrics.
影响因子：
16.2
作者：
Y. Wada;A. Vinca;S. Parkinson;B. Willaarts;P. Magnuszewski;Junko Mochizuki;B. Mayor;Yaoping Wang;P. Burek;E. Byers;K. Riahi;V. Krey;S. Langan;M. V. Dijk;D. Grey;A. Hillers;R. Novák;A. Mukherjee;A. Bhattacharya;S. Bhardwaj;S. Romshoo;S. Thambi;Abubakr Muhammad;Ansir Ilyas;Asif Khan;B. Lashari;R. Mahar;R. Ghulam;A. Siddiqi;J. Wescoat;Nithiyanandam Yogeswara;A. Ashraf;B. S. Sidhu;Jiang Tong
通讯作者：
Y. Wada;A. Vinca;S. Parkinson;B. Willaarts;P. Magnuszewski;Junko Mochizuki;B. Mayor;Yaoping Wang;P. Burek;E. Byers;K. Riahi;V. Krey;S. Langan;M. V. Dijk;D. Grey;A. Hillers;R. Novák;A. Mukherjee;A. Bhattacharya;S. Bhardwaj;S. Romshoo;S. Thambi;Abubakr Muhammad;Ansir Ilyas;Asif Khan;B. Lashari;R. Mahar;R. Ghulam;A. Siddiqi;J. Wescoat;Nithiyanandam Yogeswara;A. Ashraf;B. S. Sidhu;Jiang Tong
影响因子：
8.2
作者：
Borgomeo, Edoardo;Mortazavi-Naeini, Mohammad;Guillod, Benoit P.
通讯作者：
Guillod, Benoit P.