Economic risk assessment of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador, in case of a future lahar emplacement
Economic risk assessment of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador, in case of a future lahar emplacement
复制标题
厄瓜多尔科托帕西火山未来火山泥浆就位的经济风险评估
作者：
Fabián Rodríguez;T. Toulkeridis;W. Sandoval;Oswaldo Padilla;Fernando Mato
厄瓜多尔中北部的科托帕西火山是世界上最危险的火山之一，因为它能够产生影响深远的火山泥浆，这些泥浆能够破坏基础设施，并危及居住在该火山主要河流排水系统附近的大量人口。对高于或接近历史火山灰沉积物的基础设施进行了经济评估，以确定未来潜在火山灰的直接和间接损害的价值。除了许多其他建筑物或财产外，此类战略基础设施还包括居住区和建筑区、高速公路和水力发电厂。间接损失包括水、食品、能源和汽油供应等方面的收入损失。此类损害的总损失约为 170 亿美元，占厄瓜多尔 GDP 的 16.8%。同时，建设能够滞留火山泥流的缓解结构预计耗资约 1.5 亿美元。计算得出的效益成本比（1:114）非常显着，意味着成本降低了 9912%，并得出这样的结论：为了保护生命并防止战略基础设施的重大损失，建设缓解结构是当局最可选择性和最合理的选择。
The Cotopaxi volcano in north-central Ecuador is one of the most dangerous volcanoes of the world due to its ability to generate far-reaching lahars, which are able to destroy infrastructure and endanger a high amount of population living close to the main fluvial drainages of this volcano. An economic evaluation of the infrastructure, which is above or close to the historic lahar deposits, has been undertaken in order to determine the values of direct and indirect damages of a potential future lahar. Such strategic infrastructure includes habituated and constructed areas, highways and hydroelectric plants besides many other structures or properties. Indirect damages include losses in revenues in water, food, energy and gasoline supply among others. The total losses of such damages are approximately 17 billon USD, representing 16.8 % of the Ecuadorian GDP. Simultaneously, the construction of mitigation structures able to retain lahars is calculated to be of about 150 million USD. The calculated benefit–cost ratio (1:114) is significant, entailing a cost reduction in 9912 %, and leads to the conclusion that the construction of mitigation structures is the most optional and justified choice for the authorities in order to protect life and prevent a high loss of strategic infrastructure.
制定火山泥流的建筑损坏量表：应用于印度尼西亚默拉皮火山
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Jenkins S
通讯作者：
Jenkins S