Associations Between Governor Political Affiliation and COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Testing in the U.S.
Associations Between Governor Political Affiliation and COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Testing in the U.S.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.amepre.2021.01.034
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发表时间：
2021-07
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Benjamin-Neelon SE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Neelon B;Mutiso F;Mueller NT;Pearce JL;Benjamin-Neelon SE
在美国，对COVID-19大流行的反应变得越来越政治化，国家领导人的政治派别可能有助于影响疾病传播的政策。这项研究考察了美国50个州和哥伦比亚特区州长党派在COVID-19感染、死亡和检测方面的差异。于2020年12月进行了纵向分析，检查了2020年3月15日至2020年12月15日期间的COVID-19发病率、死亡率、检测率和检测阳性率。贝叶斯负二项模型拟合估计每日风险比和后验间隔比较率州长党的联系。这些分析调整了州人口密度，农村，人口普查地区，年龄，种族，民族，贫困，医生数量，肥胖，心血管疾病，哮喘，吸烟和2020年总统选举。从2020年3月至2020年6月初，民主党领导的州的COVID-19发病率低于民主党领导的州。2020年6月3日，这种关联发生逆转，以美国为首的州的发病率更高（风险比=1.10，95%后验区间=1.01，1.18）。这一趋势一直持续到2020年12月初。就死亡率而言，以美国为首的州在大流行早期的死亡率较低，但从2020年7月4日（风险比=1.18，95%后验区间=1.02，1.31）到2020年12月中旬的死亡率较高。从2020年5月30日开始，以美国为首的州的检测阳性率较高（风险比=1.70，95%后验区间=1.66，1.73），到2020年9月30日检测率较低（风险比=0.95，95%后验区间=0.90，0.98）。州长所属党派可能会推动影响美国各地COVID-19感染和死亡的政策决定。未来的政策决定应该以公共卫生考虑为指导，而不是以政治意识形态为指导。
The response to the COVID-19 pandemic became increasingly politicized in the U.S., and the political affiliation of state leaders may contribute to policies affecting the spread of the disease. This study examines the differences in COVID-19 infection, death, and testing by governor party affiliation across the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. A longitudinal analysis was conducted in December 2020 examining COVID-19 incidence, death, testing, and test positivity rates from March 15, 2020 through December 15, 2020. A Bayesian negative binomial model was fit to estimate the daily risk ratios and posterior intervals comparing rates by gubernatorial party affiliation. The analyses adjusted for state population density, rurality, Census region, age, race, ethnicity, poverty, number of physicians, obesity, cardiovascular disease, asthma, smoking, and presidential voting in 2020. From March 2020 to early June 2020, Republican-led states had lower COVID-19 incidence rates than Democratic-led states. On June 3, 2020, the association reversed, and Republican-led states had a higher incidence (risk ratio=1.10, 95% posterior interval=1.01, 1.18). This trend persisted through early December 2020. For death rates, Republican-led states had lower rates early in the pandemic but higher rates from July 4, 2020 (risk ratio=1.18, 95% posterior interval=1.02, 1.31) through mid-December 2020. Republican-led states had higher test positivity rates starting on May 30, 2020 (risk ratio=1.70, 95% posterior interval=1.66, 1.73) and lower testing rates by September 30, 2020 (risk ratio=0.95, 95% posterior interval=0.90, 0.98). Gubernatorial party affiliation may drive policy decisions that impact COVID-19 infections and deaths across the U.S. Future policy decisions should be guided by public health considerations rather than by political ideology.
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作者：
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