Conditional probability of survival nomogram for 1-, 2-, and 3-year survivors after an R0 resection for gastric cancer.
Conditional probability of survival nomogram for 1-, 2-, and 3-year survivors after an R0 resection for gastric cancer.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1245/s10434-012-2723-6
复制
发表时间：
2013-05
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Coit DG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dikken JL;Baser RE;Gonen M;Kattan MW;Shah MA;Verheij M;van de Velde CJ;Brennan MF;Coit DG
胃癌根治性手术后的生存估计基于 AJCC 分期或更准确的多变量列线图。然而，随着时间的推移，死于胃癌的风险并不恒定，大多数死亡发生在切除后的头两年内。因此，度过这个关键时期的患者的预后会得到改善。随着时间的推移，这种改进被称为条件生存概率 (CPS)。本研究的目的是开发一个 CPS 列线图，预测治愈性胃切除术后特定时间段内存活的患者从手术之日起的 5 年疾病特异性生存率 (DSS)，并探讨随访中可用的变量是否可以改善随访环境中的列线图。 CPS 列线图是根据美国和荷兰的联合数据集开发的，其中包含 1,642 名接受 R0 切除术并有或没有化疗/放疗的胃癌患者。切除后 1 年的体重减轻、体能状态、血红蛋白和白蛋白被添加到该列线图的基线变量中。 CPS 列线图具有很强的辨别力（一致性指数：0.772）。与手术后直接预测的基线相比，存活 1 年、2 年或 3 年可使手术后 5 年 DSS 的中位改善分别为 7.2%、19.1% 和 31.6%。引入一年随访时可用的变量并没有改善列线图。开发了强大的胃癌列线图来预测术后时间点存活患者的生存率。一年随访后引入的其他可用变量并未进一步改善该列线图。
Survival estimates after curative surgery for gastric cancer are based on AJCC staging, or on more accurate multivariable nomograms. However, the risk of dying of gastric cancer is not constant over time, with most deaths occurring in the first 2 years after resection. Therefore, the prognosis for a patient who survives this critical period improves. This improvement over time is termed conditional probability of survival (CPS). Objectives of this study were to develop a CPS nomogram predicting 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS) from the day of surgery for patients surviving a specified period of time after a curative gastrectomy and to explore whether variables available with follow-up improve the nomogram in the follow-up setting. A CPS nomogram was developed from a combined US-Dutch dataset, containing 1,642 patients who underwent an R0 resection with or without chemotherapy/ radiotherapy for gastric cancer. Weight loss, performance status, hemoglobin, and albumin 1 year after resection were added to the baseline variables of this nomogram. The CPS nomogram was highly discriminating (concordance index: 0.772). Surviving 1, 2, or 3 years gives a median improvement of 5-year DSS from surgery of 7.2, 19.1, and 31.6 %, compared with the baseline prediction directly after surgery. Introduction of variables available at 1-year follow-up did not improve the nomogram. A robust gastric cancer nomogram was developed to predict survival for patients alive at time points after surgery. Introduction of additional variables available after 1 year of follow-up did not further improve this nomogram.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
7.4
作者：
Wang, Samuel J.;Emery, Rachel;Thomas, Charles R., Jr.
通讯作者：
Thomas, Charles R., Jr.
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Rueth, Natasha M.;Groth, Shawn S.;Habermann, Elizabeth B.
通讯作者：
Habermann, Elizabeth B.
影响因子：
6.2
作者：
Fuller, Clifton D.;Wang, Samuel J.;Rosenthal, David I.
通讯作者：
Rosenthal, David I.
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Koc, Mahmut;Dizen, Hayrettin;Tez, Mesut
通讯作者：
Tez, Mesut
影响因子：
6.2
作者：
Peeters, KCMJ;Kattan, MW;van de Velde, CJH
通讯作者：
van de Velde, CJH