Autocratic Elections: Stabilizing Tool or Force for Change?
Autocratic Elections: Stabilizing Tool or Force for Change?
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独裁选举：稳定工具还是变革力量？
DOI：
10.1017/s0043887116000149
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Tore Wig
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Knutsen;H. Nygård;Tore Wig
选举是否会降低或增加独裁政权垮台的风险？本文通过区分选举事件和选举制度来解决这个有争议的问题。两位作者提出，选举在长期内稳定了独裁政权，但代价是短期的不稳定。从长远来看，选举有利于政权的生存，因为它们提高了拉拢和镇压的能力，但由于它们是政权反对派的焦点，因此会产生短期的不稳定。根据1946至2008年间259个独裁政体的数据，两位作者指出，选举增加了政权失败的短期可能性。在考虑到独裁选举的内生性时，估计的影响仍然存在；这一发现是至关重要的，因为一些独裁者可能会或可能不会举行选举，因为人们认为这会对政权的生存产生影响。作者还发现，这种破坏稳定的效应不会长期起作用。他们发现了一些证据，尽管不是那么有力，表明选举在中长期内稳定了独裁政权，尽管选举会产生破坏稳定的直接影响。这些时间效应模式在行政和立法选举中都存在，它们对使用不同的衡量标准、控制变量策略和估计技术是稳健的。与预期一致的是，与完全无竞争的选举相比，多党专制选举的这两种影响模式都要清晰得多。
Do elections reduce or increase the risk of autocratic regime breakdown? This article addresses this contested question by distinguishing between election events and the institution of elections. The authors propose that elections stabilize autocracies in the long term but at the price of short-term instability. Elections are conducive to regime survival in the long run because they improve capacities for co-optation and repression but produce short-term instability because they serve as focal points for regime opposition. Drawing on data from 259 autocracies from 1946 to 2008, the authors show that elections increase the short-term probability of regime failure. The estimated effect is retained when accounting for the endogeneity of autocratic elections; this finding is critical, since some autocrats may or may not hold elections because of perceived effects on regime survival. The authors also find that this destabilizing effect does not operate in the long term. They find some, although not as strong, evidence that elections stabilize autocratic regimes in the medium to long term, despite their destabilizing immediate effects. These temporal effect patterns are present for both executive and legislative elections, and they are robust to using different measures, control variable strategies, and estimation techniques. In line with expectations, both effect patterns are much clearer for multiparty autocratic elections than for completely uncontested elections.
选举和种族内战
影响因子：
5
作者：
Cederman L
通讯作者：
Cederman L