Extreme climate events limit northern range expansion of wild turkeys
Extreme climate events limit northern range expansion of wild turkeys
复制标题
极端气候事件限制了野生火鸡向北扩张
作者：
Maxime Lavoie;S. Jenouvrier;Pierre Blanchette;S. Larivière;J. Tremblay
对于栖息在其环境耐受极限区域的物种来说，极端事件往往会推动种群的持久性。然而，由于极端事件并不常见，它们对扩张物种的种群动态的影响知之甚少。我们研究了冬季和夏季的极端气候事件如何影响三个种群的野生火鸡占据自然气候梯度的北方边缘的范围。首先，我们研究了人口动态变化率影响人口增长率的机制。其次，我们建立了一个气候依赖的结构化人口模型。最后，通过将这个种群模型与IPCC级气候预测相联系，我们预测了到2100年最北部种群的野生火鸡种群丰度，以应对极端降雪事件的频率。我们发现，这三个种群的人口动态是通过不同的途径，预计从入侵的人口动态的理论，这些人口主要是由大雪，减少冬季生存限制食物的获取，预计移民人口下降，在北方物种范围。这项研究阐明了极端事件如何影响种群动态和分布范围的扩大温带物种的北方边缘。
For species inhabiting areas at the limit of their environmental tolerance, extreme events often drive population persistence. However, because extreme events are uncommon, their effects on population dynamics of expanding species are poorly known. We examined how extreme climate events in winter and summer affected three populations of wild turkeys occupying a natural climate gradient at the northern edge of their range. First, we examined the mechanism by which vital rates affect the population growth rate. Second, we developed a climate-dependent structured population model. Finally, by linking this population model to IPCC-class climate projections, we projected wild turkey population abundance in response to the frequency of extreme snow events by 2100 for the northernmost population. We showed that the population dynamics of the three populations is driven through different pathways expected from the theory of invading population dynamics; that those populations were mainly limited by heavy snow that decreases winter survival by restraining food access; and that a population of immigrant is projected to decline at the northern species range. This study exemplifies how extreme events affect population dynamics and range expansion of temperate species at the northern edge of the distribution.
影响因子：
11.6
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