The call of the emperor penguin: Legal responses to species threatened by climate change.
The call of the emperor penguin: Legal responses to species threatened by climate change.
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.15806
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发表时间：
2021-10
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
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由于人为气候变化，物种灭绝风险正在加速，因此迫切需要通过法律的框架保护脆弱物种，以促进有助于减轻风险的保护行动。在这里，我们讨论了评估气候变化对物种的风险的基本概念，使用帝企鹅（Aptenodytes forsteri）的例子，目前正在考虑根据美国濒危物种法（ESA）的保护。该物种在南极海冰上形成殖民地，由于持续的温室气体（GHG）排放，预计海冰将显着减少。我们使用气候依赖的Meta种群模型，包括基于殖民地观测卫星记录的极端气候事件的影响，在不同的温室气体排放情景下预测所有已知的帝企鹅殖民地的动态。在ESA下对物种清单进行评估时，需要了解在可预见的未来，物种的复原力、冗余度和代表性（3R）将如何受到威胁的影响。我们的研究结果表明，如果海冰在当前能源系统趋势和政策下以气候模型预测的速度下降，3R将大幅减少，到2100年几乎所有的殖民地都将成为准灭绝。我们的结论是，该物种应被列为濒危物种。我们建议，帝企鹅现在应该被列为濒危物种法案的威胁。事实上，到2100年，在当前能源系统趋势和政策导致的排放情景下，帝企鹅将在整个范围内面临灭绝的危险（地图上殖民地的颜色）。在殖民地发生的极端环境扰动，放大了全球人口的下降，并加速了灭绝的时间（右侧面板上的彩色线）。如果全世界现在就采取积极行动减少温室气体排放，并实现《巴黎协定》的目标，物种的减少将不会那么严重，物种的生存时间也会更长。
Species extinction risk is accelerating due to anthropogenic climate change, making it urgent to protect vulnerable species through legal frameworks in order to facilitate conservation actions that help mitigate risk. Here, we discuss fundamental concepts for assessing climate change risks to species using the example of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), currently being considered for protection under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). This species forms colonies on Antarctic sea ice, which is projected to significantly decline due to ongoing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin colonies under different GHG emission scenarios using a climate‐dependent meta‐population model including the effects of extreme climate events based on the observational satellite record of colonies. Assessments for listing species under the ESA require information about how species resiliency, redundancy and representation (3Rs) will be affected by threats within the foreseeable future. Our results show that if sea ice declines at the rate projected by climate models under current energy system trends and policies, the 3Rs would be dramatically reduced and almost all colonies would become quasi‐extinct by 2100. We conclude that the species should be listed as threatened under the ESA. We recommend that emperor penguins should now be listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. Indeed, by 2100, under emissions scenarios resulting from current energy‐system trends and policies, emperor penguins will be in danger of extinction throughout its entire range (color of colonies on the map). Extreme environmental perturbations occurring at colonies, magnify global population declines and accelerate the time to extinction (colored lines on right panels). If the world would take aggressive actions to reduce greenhouse gases emission now and the Paris Agreement objectives are met, declines will be much less severe and the species will persist longer.
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影响因子：
3.6
作者：
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