Lessons learnt at the Met Office from the Great Storm of 1987 – a comparison with recent strong wind events
Lessons learnt at the Met Office from the Great Storm of 1987 – a comparison with recent strong wind events
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英国气象局从 1987 年大风暴中吸取的教训——与最近的强风事件的比较
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
F. Ralston
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Alexander Fox;R. Sherwin;F. Ralston
1987年风暴过后的一项重大改进是建立了国家恶劣天气预警服务（NSWWS）。当时，在恶劣天气来临之前，向紧急服务部门、紧急救援人员甚至武装部队发出了警告。然而，在广播、电视和报纸的常规预报之外，向公众发出警告的唯一方法是通过闪电警报。这些警告是在天气事件本身发布的，通常是对恶劣天气的观测作出的反应，覆盖了英国18个最大的城市地区；它们是基于某些阈值（例如，3小时内降雨量为15毫米）。这个系统在当时被认为是足够的，但是1987年的风暴表明，尽管它在白天是有效的，但在晚上就不那么有效了，因为主要的传播方法是通过广播和电视（Met Office, 1988）。因此，FLASH系统被升级为NSWWS。在其他方面，这些改进包括在全国范围内发布警告的设施，以及提前发出警告的设施。2011年，在公共气象服务客户小组（Goldstraw, 2012）的审查之后，NSWWS进行了重大改革。目前的系统允许在英国各地发布雨、风、雾、雪和冰警报，根据提前时间分为两类：警报可能在一到五天前发布，以及在预期的恶劣天气事件发生后24小时内发布。然后，根据对事件可能性和预计影响的评估，将警报和警告进一步细分为黄色、琥珀色和红色，而不仅仅是发布闪电警报时使用的简单阈值。例如，黄色警告可能表示低影响事件的高可能性（图1中左上角）或严重影响事件的低可能性（图1中右下角）。更新通常在上午晚些时候发布，让应急人员和媒体有时间发布信息，但如果天气允许，警告仍然可以随时更新。
A major improvement made in the wake of the 1987 storm was the creation of the National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). At that time, during the run-up to severe weather, warnings were issued to emergency services, emergency responders and even the armed forces. However, the only way to warn the public, over and above the routine forecasts on radio, television and in newspapers, was via a FLASH warning. These warnings were issued during the weather event itself, usually in response to observations of severe weather, and covered the 18 largest urban areas in the UK; they were based on certain thresholds (e.g. 15mm of rain falling in 3 hours). This system was thought to be adequate at the time, but the 1987 storm demonstrated that, although it could be effective by day, it was far less so at night as the main dissemination method was via radio and television (Met Office, 1988). Accordingly, the FLASH system was upgraded to become the NSWWS. Among other things, the improvements included the facility to issue warnings nationwide and to provide warnings with some advance notice. The NSWWS was given a major overhaul in 2011 following a review by the Public Weather Service Customer Group (Goldstraw, 2012). The current system allows warnings for rain, wind, fog, snow and ice to be issued across the UK, and it is split into two categories depending on the lead time: alerts may be issued between one and five days ahead, and warnings within 24 hours, of an expected severe weather event. The alerts and warnings are then further sub-divided into yellow, amber and red based on an assessment of the likelihood and projected impacts of the event, rather than just the simple thresholds which were used when issuing the FLASH warnings. For example a yellow warning may represent the high likelihood of a low impact event (towards the top left in Figure 1) or the low likelihood of severe impacts (towards the bottom right). Updates are normally issued during the late morning to give responders and media outlets time to get the message out, but warnings can still be updated at any time if the weather warrants it.
北欧强风暴中的斯汀喷气式飞机
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
Baker L
通讯作者：
Baker L