Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US joint rainfall-surge hazard
Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US joint rainfall-surge hazard
复制标题
热带气旋气候变化极大加剧美国雨潮联合危害
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
K. Emanuel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Gori;N. Lin;D. Xi;K. Emanuel
热带气旋（TC）是极端降雨和风暴潮的最大驱动力之一，但目前和未来的TC联合灾害尚未得到很好的量化。我们利用物理为基础的方法来模拟TC降雨和风暴潮，并量化其联合危害下的历史条件和未来（SSP 5 8.5）的气候预测。我们发现，到2100年，超过联合历史100年危害水平的频率急剧增加，沿美国南部海岸增加沿着10-36倍，东北部增加30-195倍。海平面上升和TC气候变化共同导致了灾害的增加，96%的海岸TC气候变化的相对贡献高于海平面上升，这是由于降雨量的大幅增加。暴雨强度的增加和平移速度的减小是导致暴雨和风暴潮增加的主要TC变化因素，其相关性增加了25%。
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the largest drivers of extreme rainfall and surge, but current and future TC joint hazard has not been well quantified. We utilize a physics-based approach to simulate TC rainfall and storm tides and quantify their joint hazard under historical conditions and a future (SSP5 8.5) climate projection. We find drastic increases in the frequency of exceeding joint historical 100-yr hazard levels by 2100, with a 10–36 fold increase along the southern US coast and 30–195 fold increase in the northeast. The joint hazard increase is induced by sea-level rise and TC climatology change; the relative contribution of TC climatology change is higher than that of sea-level rise for 96% of the coast due to large increases in rainfall. Increasing storm intensity and decreasing translation speed are the main TC change factors that cause higher rainfall and storm tides and up to 25% increase in their dependence.
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Bates, Paul D.;Quinn, Niall;Krajewski, Witold F.
通讯作者：
Krajewski, Witold F.
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Emanuel, Kerry
通讯作者：
Emanuel, Kerry