Spatiotemporal evolution of urbanization and its implications to urban planning of the megacity, Shanghai, China
Spatiotemporal evolution of urbanization and its implications to urban planning of the megacity, Shanghai, China
复制标题
城市化的时空演变及其对中国上海特大城市城市规划的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s10980-022-01578-7
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发表时间：
2022-12
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Maros Finka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Caiyan Wu;Cheng Li;Linke Ouyang;Huirong Xiao;Jiong Wu;Minghao Zhuang;Xing Bi;Junxiang Li;Chunfang Wang;Conghe Song;Tong Qiu;Dagmar Haase;Amy Hahs;Maros Finka
城市化深刻地改变了城市景观格局和形态。了解这些变化及其驱动力的时空演变是至关重要的城市规划和可持续城市发展的决策。ObjectivesThis study aims to quantify the spatialtimal pattern of urban growth in Shanghai，China for testing urban growth hypotheses，以确定其驱动因素，并提供见解可持续城市规划。结果1985 - 2015年上海市城市化用地呈现逻辑斯蒂增长模式，城市化用地空间格局变化主要受城市化进程的影响，城市化用地空间格局变化主要受城市化进程的影响。城市面积的年增长率呈波浪式，在2000 - 2005年达到峰值。城市的跨越式增长模式，边缘扩展，和填充被确定，这些模式交替在主导地位随着时间的推移。上海城市化进程遵循螺旋式扩散-聚合假说。年末常住人口净增长、城市基础设施投资和固定资产投资总额是上海城市增长的主要驱动因素。城市化进程已经放缓，接近曲线的平台，这意味着由人口增长和投资驱动的城市增长应该转向可持续的城市更新和生态建设。对城市绿色和蓝色基础设施的投资可以帮助实现上海总体规划（2017 - 2035年）针对整体开发土地的"负增长"目标。
ContextUrbanization has profoundly changed urban landscape patterns and morphologies. Understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of these changes and their driving forces is vital to decision making for urban planning and sustainable urban development.ObjectivesThis study aims to quantify the spatiotemporal pattern of urban growth in Shanghai, China for testing urban growth hypotheses, to identify its driving factors, and to provide insights for sustainable urban planning.MethodsWe fitted a nonlinear curve to the urbanization pattern, employed landscape expansion indices to quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of urbanization, utilized partial least square regression to differentiate contribution of main socioeconomic driving factors.ResultsUrbanized land in Shanghai exhibited a logistic growth pattern from 1985 to 2015. The annual growth rate of urban area showed a wave-like pattern and peaked in 2000–2005. Urban growth modes of leapfrog, edge expansion, and infilling were identified, and these patterns alternates in dominance over time. The urbanization process in Shanghai followed the spiraling diffusion-coalescence hypothesis. The net increase of year-end residential population, urban infrastructure investment, and the total investment in fixed assets were the dominant driving factors to urban growth.ConclusionA logistic curve well quantified the temporal pattern of urbanization in Shanghai. Urbanization has slowed down, approaching the plateau of the curve, implying that urban growth driven by population increase and investment should switch to sustainable urban renewal and ecological constructions. Investment to urban green and blue infrastructures could help achieve “negative growth” targeted by the Shanghai Master Plan (2017–2035) for the overall developed land.
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