Determinants of urban expansion and their relative importance: A comparative analysis of 30 major metropolitans in China
Determinants of urban expansion and their relative importance: A comparative analysis of 30 major metropolitans in China
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城市扩张的决定因素及其相对重要性：中国30个主要大城市的比较分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.habitatint.2016.10.003
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发表时间：
2016-11
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Su Shiliang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang Qianwen;Su Shiliang
大都市作为一种新的城市治理形式逐渐兴起。了解大都市一级的城市扩展过程及其决定因素，应能为城市管理和规划提供重要参考。本文利用1993-2012年的夜间稳定光数据，对中国30个大城市的城市扩展过程进行了完整的描述。沿着东部沿海的大城市扩张强度较大，扩张速度较快。而东北大城市的城市扩展强度和速度则相对较低。根据广泛的文献回顾，从四个类别中选择了潜在的决定因素：经济、社会、人口和自然。采用多变量线性回归和方差划分来识别和比较30个大都市城市扩张的决定因素及其相对重要性。结果表明，城市扩展不仅受到不同类别的决定因素，但也受到它们的组合。更具体地说，所确定的决定因素因大都市而异，但存在一些相似之处。经济增长、工业发展和经济结构转型是关键的经济决定因素。人口和劳动力增长、人口城市化和人口结构是重要的人口决定因素。主要的社会决定因素包括基础设施建设、能源消耗和真实的房地产开发，而主要的自然决定因素是可用土地的数量和拓扑结构。聚类分析进一步应用，它产生了三个主要的驱动力配置文件之间的30个大都市，相对于不同类别的决定因素及其组合的相对重要性。驱动力概况应有助于管理者在决策过程中确定优先事项，并制定最佳的城市战略。本研究有助于深入理解大都市层面城市扩展的驱动机制，为国际人居环境研究提供更深层次的空间视角。
Metropolitan has progressively emerged as a new form of urban governance. Understanding the urban expansion process and its determinants at metropolitan level should provide critical references for urban management and planning. Using time-series nighttime stable light data (1993–2012), this paper captures the full continuum of urban expansion process in 30 major metropolitans of China. Greater expansion intensity and faster expansion speed are observed in metropolitans along the eastern coast. Conversely, the metropolitans in northeastern China exhibit lower urban expansion intensity and speed. Potential determinants are selected based on extensive literature review from four categories: economic, social, demographic, and natural. Multivariable linear regression and variances partitioning are employed to identify and compare the determinants of urban expansion and their relative importance across the 30 metropolitans. Results show that urban expansion is not only subjected to different categories of determinants but also influenced by their combinations. More specifically, the identified determinants vary with metropolitans but present some similarities. Economic growth, industrial development, and economic structural transformation are the key economic determinants. Population and labor growth, population urbanization, and population structure act as essential demographic determinants. Primary social determinants include infrastructure construction, energy consumption, and real estate development, while dominant natural determinants are the amount and topology of available land. Cluster analysis is further applied and it generates three major driving forces profiles among the 30 metropolitans, with respect to the relative importance of different categories of determinants and their combinations. The driving force profiles should be useful for managers to set priorities in decision making procedure and develop optimal urban strategies. Our study is believed to advance the understanding of driving mechanism governing urban expansion at metropolitan level and further provide deeper spatial insights for international habitat research.
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2.1
作者：
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通讯作者：
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作者：
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作者：
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