Buying Time for an Effective Epidemic Response: The Impact of a Public Holiday for Outbreak Control on COVID-19 Epidemic Spread.
Buying Time for an Effective Epidemic Response: The Impact of a Public Holiday for Outbreak Control on COVID-19 Epidemic Spread.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eng.2020.07.018
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发表时间：
2020-10
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Bärnighausen T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen S;Chen Q;Yang W;Xue L;Liu Y;Yang J;Wang C;Bärnighausen T
在新流行病的早期阶段迅速作出反应对控制疫情至关重要。疫情控制的公共假期可以为在大规模人群中快速推出社交距离和其他控制措施提供关键的时间窗口。本研究旨在探讨疫情控制假期的时间和持续时间对2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情在中国早期传播的影响。我们开发了一个房室模型，以模拟2020年1月起COVID-19在中国的动态传播。我们预测并比较了在中国农历新年期间开始的疫情控制假期和没有疫情控制假期的情况下的疫情轨迹。我们考虑了疫情控制假期的多种情景，这些情景具有不同的持续时间和开始时间，以及对病毒传播率的不同假设。我们估计了在不同情况下达到一定感染阈值的延迟天数。我们的研究结果显示，中国的疫情控制假期可能使COVID-19的传播停滞了几天。疫情控制假期（湖北省21天，其他各省10天）使确诊病例达到10万例的时间推迟了7.54天。 一个更长的疫情控制假期会产生更大的影响。如果全国疫情控制假期为21天，确诊感染人数达到10万人的时间将推迟近10天。 此外，我们发现，在新的疫情过程中，较早开始的疫情控制假期比较晚的假期更有效地阻止疫情传播，假期期间的额外控制措施可以增强假期效应。总之，疫情控制假期可能会有效地延迟通过社会接触传播的流行病的传播。流行病传播轨迹的暂时延迟为科学家们赢得了时间，科学家们可以利用这些时间发现传播途径，确定有效的公共卫生干预措施，政府可以利用这些时间建设有形基础设施，组织医疗物资，并部署人力资源，开展长期的流行病缓解和控制工作。
Rapid responses in the early stage of a new epidemic are crucial in outbreak control. Public holidays for outbreak control could provide a critical time window for a rapid rollout of social distancing and other control measures at a large population scale. The objective of our study was to explore the impact of the timing and duration of outbreak-control holidays on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic spread during the early stage in China. We developed a compartment model to simulate the dynamic transmission of COVID-19 in China starting from January 2020. We projected and compared epidemic trajectories with and without an outbreak-control holiday that started during the Chinese Lunar New Year. We considered multiple scenarios of the outbreak-control holiday with different durations and starting times, and under different assumptions about viral transmission rates. We estimated the delays in days to reach certain thresholds of infections under different scenarios. Our results show that the outbreak-control holiday in China likely stalled the spread of COVID-19 for several days. The base case outbreak-control holiday (21 d for Hubei Province and 10 d for all other provinces) delayed the time to reach 100 000 confirmed infections by 7.54 d. A longer outbreak-control holiday would have had stronger effects. A nationwide outbreak-control holiday of 21 d would have delayed the time to 100 000 confirmed infections by nearly 10 d. Furthermore, we find that outbreak-control holidays that start earlier in the course of a new epidemic are more effective in stalling epidemic spread than later holidays and that additional control measures during the holidays can boost the holiday effect. In conclusion, an outbreak-control holiday can likely effectively delay the transmission of epidemics that spread through social contacts. The temporary delay in the epidemic trajectory buys time, which scientists can use to discover transmission routes and identify effective public health interventions and which governments can use to build physical infrastructure, organize medical supplies, and deploy human resources for long-term epidemic mitigation and control efforts.
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影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Li, Qun;Guan, Xuhua;Feng, Zijian
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
168.9
作者：
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1524-4733.2008.00484.x
发表时间：
2009-06
期刊：
Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research
影响因子：
--
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
120.7
作者：
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