Agent-Based Modelling of Social-Ecological Systems: Achievements, Challenges, and a Way Forward
Agent-Based Modelling of Social-Ecological Systems: Achievements, Challenges, and a Way Forward
复制标题
基于主体的社会生态系统建模：成就、挑战和前进之路
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
V. Grimm
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jule Schulze;B. Müller;J. Groeneveld;V. Grimm
了解社会生态系统（SES）对于支持资源的可持续管理至关重要。基于主体的建模是实现这一目标的宝贵工具，因为它可以代表生物体、人类行为者和机构的行为和相互作用。因此，基于主体的模型（ABM）已经被广泛用于研究SES。然而，SES的ABM本质上是复杂的。因此，它们难以参数化和分析，这可能限制它们的有用性。现在是时候批判性地反思目前的最先进的，以评估在何种程度上的潜力，基于代理的建模获得一般的见解和支持具体的决策已经被利用。我们回顾了在具有较长历史的生态建模领域建立良好建模实践的发展所取得的成就和面临的挑战。作为参考，我们使用了TRACE框架，它包含了模型开发、测试和分析的元素。我们首先回顾了社会生态ABMs的评论和方法文件中所提到的TRACE框架的要素方面的成就和挑战。其次，在一个小型审查中，我们评估了TRACE框架的要素是否以及在何种程度上在关于特定反弹道导弹的出版物中得到了解决。我们发现了以下方面的重大差距：（1）沟通模型是否足够好地代表了真实的系统，以达到其预期目的;（2）以系统和透明的方式分析模型，以便模型输出不仅被观察到，而且被理解。为了填补这些空白，需要建模界共同努力，促进促进和使用各种战略，如参与性办法、通信标准协议、源代码共享以及模型设计和分析的工具和战略。在我们的分析中，我们提供了具体的建议和参考，以提高国家的最先进的。我们因此希望有助于建立一个新的先进的文化，基于代理的建模SES，这将使我们能够更好地发展一般的理论和实际的解决方案。
Understanding social-ecological systems (SES) is crucial to supporting the sustainable management of resources. Agent-based modelling is a valuable tool to achieve this because it can represent the behaviour and interactions of organisms, human actors and institutions. Agent-based models (ABMs) have therefore already been widely used to study SES. However, ABMs of SES are by their very nature complex. They are therefore difficult to parameterize and analyse, which can limit their usefulness. It is time to critically reflect upon the current state-of-the-art to evaluate to what degree the potential of agent-based modelling for gaining general insights and supporting specific decision-making has already been utilized. We reviewed achievements and challenges by building upon developments in good modelling practice in the field of ecological modelling with its longer history. As a reference, we used the TRACE framework, which encompasses elements of model development, testing and analysis. We firstly reviewed achievements and challenges with regard to the elements of the TRACE framework addressed in reviews and method papers of social-ecological ABMs. Secondly, in a mini-review, we evaluated whether and to what degree the elements of the TRACE framework were addressed in publications on specific ABMs. We identified substantial gaps with regard to (1) communicating whether the models represented real systems well enough for their intended purpose and (2) analysing the models in a systematic and transparent way so that model output is not only observed but also understood. To fill these gaps, a joint effort of the modelling community is needed to foster the advancement and use of strategies such as participatory approaches, standard protocols for communication, sharing of source code, and tools and strategies for model design and analysis. Throughout our analyses, we provide specific recommendations and references for improving the state-of-the-art. We thereby hope to contribute to the establishment of a new advanced culture of agent-based modelling of SES that will allow us to better develop general theory and practical solutions.
沿海生态系统中的社会生态问题建模：案例研究
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Forrester J
通讯作者：
Forrester J
DOI：
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发表时间：
1999
期刊：
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影响因子：
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作者：
Nigel Gi lbert;K. G. Troitzsch
通讯作者：
Nigel Gi lbert;K. G. Troitzsch
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Rasch, Sebastian;Heckelei, Thomas;Naumann, Christiane
通讯作者：
Naumann, Christiane