Flying without a Net: Space Radiation Cancer Risk Predictions without a Gamma-ray Basis.
Flying without a Net: Space Radiation Cancer Risk Predictions without a Gamma-ray Basis.
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DOI：
10.3390/ijms23084324
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发表时间：
2022-04-13
影响因子：
5.6
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中科院分区：
文献类型：
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与低线性能量传递辐射相比，高线性能量传递辐射的生物学效应在质和量上都存在差异。然而，用于估计风险的模型忽略了质量差异，并涉及广泛使用伽马射线数据，包括低let辐射流行病学、质量因素（QF）以及剂量和剂量率有效性因素（DDREF）。我们考虑了一种避免伽马射线数据的风险预测，方法是根据使用高let辐射的动物研究估计的参数，制定一个超额相对风险（ERR）的轨迹结构模型。ERR模型应用于美国人口癌症数据来预测宇航员的终身风险。男性肝癌和女性乳腺癌风险的结果表明ERR模型与非靶向效应（NTE）的QF模型的估计相当一致，并且比忽略NTE的QF模型高出约2倍。对于男性或女性肺癌风险，ERR模型预测的风险分别比有或没有NTE的QF模型低3倍和7倍以上。我们建议采用相对风险方法结合改进的组织特异性癌症模型，以减少空间辐射风险预测的不确定性。这种方法将避免低let的不确定性，同时包括高let辐射特有的质量效应。
The biological effects of high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation show both a qualitative and quantitative difference when compared to low-LET radiation. However, models used to estimate risks ignore qualitative differences and involve extensive use of gamma-ray data, including low-LET radiation epidemiology, quality factors (QF), and dose and dose-rate effectiveness factors (DDREF). We consider a risk prediction that avoids gamma-ray data by formulating a track structure model of excess relative risk (ERR) with parameters estimated from animal studies using high-LET radiation. The ERR model is applied with U.S. population cancer data to predict lifetime risks to astronauts. Results for male liver and female breast cancer risk show that the ERR model agrees fairly well with estimates of a QF model on non-targeted effects (NTE) and is about 2-fold higher than the QF model that ignores NTE. For male or female lung cancer risk, the ERR model predicts about a 3-fold and more than 7-fold lower risk compared to the QF models with or without NTE, respectively. We suggest a relative risk approach coupled with improved models of tissue-specific cancers should be pursued to reduce uncertainties in space radiation risk projections. This approach would avoid low-LET uncertainties, while including qualitive effects specific to high-LET radiation.
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