How does the CMIP6 ensemble change the picture for European climate projections?
How does the CMIP6 ensemble change the picture for European climate projections?
复制标题
CMIP6 整体如何改变欧洲气候预测的图景？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Carol F. McSweeney
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Palmer;Ben Booth;Carol F. McSweeney
我们比较耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP）合奏（CMIP 6）预测的季节平均温度和降水CMIP 5为北方欧洲，中欧和地中海。与CMIP5相比，CMIP6集合显示出预计的夏季变暖增加，这在中欧和地中海具有统计学意义。CMIP 6对中欧的降水预测发现，在夏季月份有更强的干燥趋势，预测范围也大大缩小。空间比较表明，这种更强的干燥趋势也延伸到北方欧洲的大部分地区。我们发现，预计在北方欧洲和地中海的夏季气温变暖主要是由CMIP6模型中较高的全球气候敏感性驱动的，而区域变化大致相似。在中欧，区域反应有很大差异，在这些情况下，情况可以说已经发生了变化。我们发现区域敏感性的差异在中欧很重要，在那里它占了预计区域温度集合之间差异的大约40%。
We compare Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) ensemble (CMIP6) projections for seasonal mean temperature and precipitation to CMIP5 for northern Europe, central Europe and the Mediterranean. The CMIP6 ensemble shows increased projected summer warming compared to CMIP5, which was found to be statistically significant in central Europe and the Mediterranean. Precipitation projections for Central Europe in CMIP6 were found to have a stronger drying trend in the summer months, there was also a substantially narrower projection range. Spatial comparisons indicate that this stronger drying trend also extends into a large part northern Europe. We show that warmer projected summer temperatures in northern Europe and the Mediterranean are largely driven by the higher global climate sensitivities in CMIP6 models, while regional changes are broadly similar. In central Europe a significant difference in the regional responses was found and in these cases the picture can be said to have changed. We find the difference in regional sensitivity is important in central Europe where it accounts for roughly 40 % of the differences between ensembles in projected regional temperature.
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Arnell, N. W.;Lowe, J. A.;Warren, R. F.
通讯作者：
Warren, R. F.
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Brunner, Lukas;McSweeney, Carol;Undorf, Sabine
通讯作者：
Undorf, Sabine