CDC (Cindy and David's Conversations) game: Advising President to survive pandemic.
CDC (Cindy and David's Conversations) game: Advising President to survive pandemic.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.isci.2023.107079
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发表时间：
2023-07-21
期刊：
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Yang, Liexun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ma, Zhanshan (Sam);Yang, Liexun
关于抗新冠病毒政策的争论一直集中在共存与零（病毒）战略上，可以简化为“永远开放（AO）”与“永远封闭（AC）”。我们假设，被称为LOHC（低风险开放式和高风险封闭式）的中间地带可能是有利的，排除了明显不合理的HOLC（高风险开放式和低风险封闭式）。从元战略的角度来看，这四项政策涵盖了抗大流行政策的全部范围。通过模拟当今抗流行病政策的现实，该研究旨在通过利用进化博弈论分析和模拟的力量来识别可能的认知差距和陷阱，这表明：(1)AO和AC似乎是“高概率”事件（0.412-0.533）；(2)与直觉相反，中间地带——lohc——似乎是一个小概率事件（0.053），可能反映了它的广泛采用和广泛失败。除了制定具体政策外，另一项同样重要的挑战似乎是处理从出现、流行、大流行到流行状态这一过程中往往难以避免的政策转变。事实上，从疫情爆发的第一天起，世界就一直在讨论抗covid - 19政策。我们将这个问题建模为一场被称为CDC（辛迪和大卫的对话）的进化游戏，16种策略是可能的，但由于不可持续性，大约一半的策略没有政策价值。共存/零/中间立场（低风险开放高封闭）应该是阶段依赖的公共卫生；信息系统模型；决策科学
Ongoing debates on anti-COVID19 policies have been focused on coexistence-with versus zero-out (virus) strategies, which can be simplified as “always open (AO)” versus “always closed (AC).” We postulate that a middle ground, dubbed LOHC (low-risk-open and high-risk-closed), is likely favorable, precluding obviously irrational HOLC (high-risk-open and low-risk-closed). From a meta-strategy perspective, these four policies cover the full spectrum of anti-pandemic policies. By emulating the reality of anti-pandemic policies today, the study aims to identify possible cognitive gaps and traps by harnessing the power of evolutionary game-theoretic analysis and simulations, which suggest that (1) AO and AC seem to be “high-probability” events (0.412–0.533); (2) counter-intuitively, the middle ground—LOHC—seems to be small-probability event (0.053), possibly mirroring its wide adoptions but broad failures. Besides devising specific policies, an equally important challenge seems to deal with often hardly avoidable policy transitions along the process from emergence, epidemic, through pandemic, to endemic state. The world has been debating anti-COVID policies virtually from day one of the pandemic We model the problem as an evolutionary game dubbed CDC (Cindy & David’s Conversations) 16 strategies are possible but about half are of no policy values because of unsustainability Coexistence/zero-out/middle-ground (low-risk open high closed) should be stage-dependent Public health; Information system model; Decision science
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