Predictors of COVID-19-Confirmed Cases and Fatalities in 883 US Counties with a Population of 50,000 or More: Estimated Effect of Initial Prevention Policies.
Predictors of COVID-19-Confirmed Cases and Fatalities in 883 US Counties with a Population of 50,000 or More: Estimated Effect of Initial Prevention Policies.
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DOI：
10.1007/s11524-021-00514-5
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发表时间：
2021-04
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Robertson LS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Robertson LS
如果预防和改善工作的重点是更脆弱的局部地区，而不是整个国家、省或州，那么控制人与人之间传播的疾病可能会更有效，经济损失也更小。COVID-19病毒的传播高度集中在美国的城市县。通过对截至2020年5月31日美国883个县的确诊病例和死亡病例进行泊松回归分析，研究了已知或被认为与COVID-19病毒传播有关的16个因素。家庭、工作场所、宗教集会的拥挤程度、人群中先前存在的健康状况以及当地的经济和人口状况（只有一个例外）都是发病率和死亡率的预测因素。根据病例和死亡人数与居家令时间的相关性，与预期的没有居家令的病例和死亡人数相比，居家令减少了约52%，减少了约55%。
Control of diseases transmitted from person to person may be more effectively and less economically damaging if preventive and ameliorative efforts are focused on the more vulnerable local areas rather than entire countries, provinces, or states. The spread of the COVID-19 virus is highly concentrated in urban US counties. Sixteen factors known or thought to be related to spread of the COVID-19 virus were studied by Poisson regression analysis of confirmed cases and deaths in 883 US counties with a population of 50,000 or more as of May 31, 2020. Evidence of crowding in homes, workplaces, religious gatherings, preexisting health conditions in the population, and local economic and demographic conditions, with one exception, was predictive of incidence and mortality. Based on the correlation of cases and deaths to length of stay-at-home orders, the orders were associated with about 52% reduced cases and about 55% reduced deaths from those expected without the orders.
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