Predictive ecology: systems approaches
Predictive ecology: systems approaches
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预测生态学：系统方法
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Benton
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Evans;K. Norris;T. Benton
世界正在经历重大的、主要是由环境因素引起的环境变化。这将对生物世界产生影响，我们需要能够预测其影响。为了做出这样的预测，生态学需要变得更有预见性，发展理解生态系统在未来变化的条件下将如何表现的能力。需要进一步开发基于过程的模型，以便进行这种预测。开发这种模型的关键是在野蛮的方法和过度简化之间取得平衡，野蛮的方法天真地试图包括一切，过度简化在各个层面上抛出重要的异质性。其核心是认识到个人是所有生态系统的基本粒子。因此，有必要了解进化对生态系统的影响，特别是当暴露于环境变化时。然而，来自进化生物学的见解将有助于模型的开发，即使数据可能是稀疏的。基于过程的模型更常见，并用于其他学科的预测，例如气候学和分子系统生物学。在这些努力中开发的工具和技术可以用于生态建模，但也有必要发展生态信息学，沿着生态问题的具体方法。推动这一努力的动力应来自社会的需求，即了解环境变化对世界的影响，以及可以采取哪些措施来减轻或适应这些影响。
The world is experiencing significant, largely anthropogenically induced, environmental change. This will impact on the biological world and we need to be able to forecast its effects. In order to produce such forecasts, ecology needs to become more predictive—to develop the ability to understand how ecological systems will behave in future, changed, conditions. Further development of process-based models is required to allow such predictions to be made. Critical to the development of such models will be achieving a balance between the brute-force approach that naively attempts to include everything, and over simplification that throws out important heterogeneities at various levels. Central to this will be the recognition that individuals are the elementary particles of all ecological systems. As such it will be necessary to understand the effect of evolution on ecological systems, particularly when exposed to environmental change. However, insights from evolutionary biology will help the development of models even when data may be sparse. Process-based models are more common, and are used for forecasting, in other disciplines, e.g. climatology and molecular systems biology. Tools and techniques developed in these endeavours can be appropriated into ecological modelling, but it will also be necessary to develop the science of ecoinformatics along with approaches specific to ecological problems. The impetus for this effort should come from the demand coming from society to understand the effects of environmental change on the world and what might be performed to mitigate or adapt to them.
DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2011.0265
发表时间：
2012
期刊：
Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
影响因子：
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作者：
Orzack,StevenHecht
通讯作者：
Orzack,StevenHecht