Understanding the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in Ontario, Canada: a modeling study.
Understanding the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in Ontario, Canada: a modeling study.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-022-06159-x
复制
发表时间：
2022-02-08
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Sadria M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Layton AT;Sadria M
在最初的野生型严重急性呼吸道综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）毒株开始对世界造成破坏一年后，它们被新的变异体（VOC）所取代。在加拿大的安大略，野生型首先被Alpha/B1.1.17变体取代，然后被Delta/B.1.617变体取代。本研究的主要目的是开发和应用一个更广泛的易感-感染-排除型模型，以更好地了解多种VOC的传播，并评估疫苗接种和非药物干预（NPI）的有效性。该模型代表了VOC之间的竞争，并揭示了它们之间的相互抑制作用。通过分别跟踪无症状和有症状的感染，模型模拟确定了疫苗突破在Delta传播中的重要作用。此外，Delta疫情的严重程度不仅取决于NPI和疫苗接种率，还取决于疫苗类型。令人震惊的是，尽管安大略现有的NPI和相对成功的疫苗推出，未来，更危险的VOC可能会感染该省的人口的很大一部分，并压倒医疗保健系统。为了阻止VOC，该省可能需要同时快速部署第三种加强疫苗和严格的NPI。
A year after the initial wild-type Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) strains began their devastation of the world, they were supplanted by new variants of concern (VOC). In Ontario, Canada, the wild type was overtaken first by the Alpha/B1.1.17 variant, and then by the Delta/B.1.617 variant. The principal objective of the present study is to develop and apply a much expanded Susceptible-Infection-Recovered-type model to better understand the spread of multiple VOC, and assess the effectiveness of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI). The model represents competition among VOC, and reveals their mutual inhibitory effects. By separately tracking asymptomatic and symptomatic infections, model simulations identify a significant role of vaccine breakthrough in the spread of Delta. Furthermore, the severity of a Delta outbreak depends not only on the NPI and vaccination rate but also on the vaccine types. Alarmingly, despite Ontario’s existing NPI and relatively successful vaccine rollout, a future, more dangerous VOC could potentially infect a significant fraction of the province’s population and overwhelm the health care system. To stop that VOC, the province may need the simultaneous and rapid deployment of a third booster vaccine and stringent NPI.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Sadria M;Layton AT
通讯作者：
Layton AT
影响因子：
5.3
作者：
Ahmed I;Modu GU;Yusuf A;Kumam P;Yusuf I
通讯作者：
Yusuf I
影响因子：
5.6
作者：
He, Shaobo;Peng, Yuexi;Sun, Kehui
通讯作者：
Sun, Kehui
SARS-COV-2疫苗给药方案的流行病学和进化考虑。
DOI：
10.1126/science.abg8663
发表时间：
2021-04-23
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Saad-Roy CM;Morris SE;Metcalf CJE;Mina MJ;Baker RE;Farrar J;Holmes EC;Pybus OG;Graham AL;Levin SA;Grenfell BT;Wagner CE
通讯作者：
Wagner CE
影响因子：
1.6
作者：
Tomochi M;Kono M
通讯作者：
Kono M