Latitudinal variations in seasonal activity of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV): a global comparative review.
Latitudinal variations in seasonal activity of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV): a global comparative review.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0054445
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Viboud C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bloom-Feshbach K;Alonso WJ;Charu V;Tamerius J;Simonsen L;Miller MA;Viboud C
关于热带地区流感和呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）季节性模式的信息有限，尽管人们对了解呼吸道病毒的季节性驱动因素重新产生了兴趣。我们根据文献综述和电子来源，对全球137个地区实验室确认的流感和RSV流行的季节性地理差异进行了综述。我们评估了高峰时间和流行持续时间，并探讨了它们与地理和研究环境的关系。我们将时间序列模型与世界卫生组织流感监测系统（FluNet）提供的每周国家数据进行拟合，以进一步表征季节性参数。在温带地区，流感和RSV活动在冬季达到峰值，而热带地区的多样性更大。几个温带地区经历了半年一次的流感活动，高峰出现在冬季和夏季。在东南亚热带地区，这两种病毒的半年活动相对常见。在北方发现了两年一次的RSV活动周期。两种病毒在半球流行的时间上都表现出弱的纬度梯度，随着纬度的增加，高峰时间出现在日历年的后期（P<0.03）。对来自85个国家的流感数据应用时间序列模型证实，在流行病的时间、持续时间、季节幅度和年间变异性方面存在纬度梯度。总体而言，80%的热带地区经历了持续6个月或更短时间的不同RSV季节，而流感的比例为50%。我们结合文献和电子数据来源的综述表明，很大一部分热带地区在个别年份经历了呼吸道病毒活动的集中季节。在包括非洲和中美洲在内的抽样不足的大区域，关于季节模式的信息仍然有限。未来的研究应尝试将观察到的病毒流行季节性的纬度梯度与气候和人口因素联系起来，并探讨疾病传播动力学和发病率的区域差异。
There is limited information on influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) seasonal patterns in tropical areas, although there is renewed interest in understanding the seasonal drivers of respiratory viruses. We review geographic variations in seasonality of laboratory-confirmed influenza and RSV epidemics in 137 global locations based on literature review and electronic sources. We assessed peak timing and epidemic duration and explored their association with geography and study settings. We fitted time series model to weekly national data available from the WHO influenza surveillance system (FluNet) to further characterize seasonal parameters. Influenza and RSV activity consistently peaked during winter months in temperate locales, while there was greater diversity in the tropics. Several temperate locations experienced semi-annual influenza activity with peaks occurring in winter and summer. Semi-annual activity was relatively common in tropical areas of Southeast Asia for both viruses. Biennial cycles of RSV activity were identified in Northern Europe. Both viruses exhibited weak latitudinal gradients in the timing of epidemics by hemisphere, with peak timing occurring later in the calendar year with increasing latitude (P<0.03). Time series model applied to influenza data from 85 countries confirmed the presence of latitudinal gradients in timing, duration, seasonal amplitude, and between-year variability of epidemics. Overall, 80% of tropical locations experienced distinct RSV seasons lasting 6 months or less, while the percentage was 50% for influenza. Our review combining literature and electronic data sources suggests that a large fraction of tropical locations experience focused seasons of respiratory virus activity in individual years. Information on seasonal patterns remains limited in large undersampled regions, included Africa and Central America. Future studies should attempt to link the observed latitudinal gradients in seasonality of viral epidemics with climatic and population factors, and explore regional differences in disease transmission dynamics and attack rates.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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