Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries.
Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries.
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DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.aar5809
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发表时间：
2018-05
期刊：
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
Lenton TM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bathiany S;Dakos V;Scheffer M;Lenton TM
贫穷国家的温度变化将增加，而富裕国家的温度变化将减少，从而造成新的气候不公平现象。热浪等极端事件是气候变化对社会最具挑战性的方面。我们表明，气候模型一致预测未来几十年热带国家温度变化的增加，亚马逊是一个特别值得关注的热点。在日照最大的季节，亚马逊河流域和南部非洲的温度变率每升高一度就会增加约15%，萨赫勒、印度和东南亚的温度变率则高达10%°C−1。其机制包括土壤干燥和大气结构的变化。在热带以外地区，由于纬向温度梯度减小和海冰减少，预计温度变率平均会降低。对气候变化影响最小、最易受极端事件影响的国家预计将经历最强烈的变异性增加。因此，这些变化将扩大与气候变化影响相关的不平等。
Temperature variability will increase in poor countries and decrease in rich countries, creating a new climate injustice. Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C−1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate.
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