Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies
Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies
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内生生育率、内生寿命和经济增长：儿童政策的作用
DOI：
10.1007/s00148-013-0472-x
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
L. Gori
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Fanti;L. Gori
我们在一个重叠代的新古典增长模型（la Chakraborty，《经济学理论》116(1):119-137,2004）中考察了儿童政策对过渡动态和长期经济结果的影响，该模型在对儿童的弱利他主义假设下扩展了内生生育率。政府投资于公共卫生，个人在青年末期的生存概率取决于卫生支出。我们表明多种发展机制可以存在。然而，贫穷或繁荣并不一定取决于初始条件，因为它们是如何设计儿童政策的结果。例如，儿童税可以有效地用于使那些陷入贫困的经济体实现繁荣。儿童税也有一个长期福利最大化的水平。我们表明，儿童税可以用来增加资本积累，摆脱贫困，并在以下情况下实现长期福利最大化：(a)公共现收现付养老金制度到位，(b)政府发行一定数量的公共债务。有趣的是，还存在一对子女税-健康税，可以用来找到次优的最优方案。此外，我们表明，在不纯利他主义的假设下，结果对于包含关于孩子数量-质量权衡的决策是稳健的。具体来说，儿童税的起征值低于（参见1）。以上)，哪些儿童素质方面的支出是负担不起的(如：可负担得起)和不同的场景存在。
We examine the effects of child policies on both transitional dynamics and long-term demo-economic outcomes in an overlapping-generations neoclassical growth model à la Chakraborty (J Econ Theory 116(1):119–137, 2004) extended with endogenous fertility under the assumption of weak altruism towards children. The government invests in public health, and an individual’s survival probability at the end of youth depends on health expenditure. We show that multiple development regimes can exist. However, poverty or prosperity does not necessarily depend on the initial conditions, since they are the result of how a child policy is designed. A child tax, for example, can be used effectively to enable those economies that were entrapped in poverty to prosper. There is also a long-term welfare-maximising level of the child tax. We show that a child tax can be used to increase capital accumulation, escape from poverty and maximise long-term welfare also when (a) a public pay-as-you-go pension system is in place and (b) the government issues an amount of public debt. Interestingly, there also exists a couple child tax–health tax that can be used to find the second-best optimum optimorum. In addition, we show that results are robust to the inclusion of decisions regarding the child quantity–quality trade-off under the assumption of impure altruism. In particular, there exists a threshold value of the child tax below (resp. above) which child quality spending is unaffordable (resp. affordable) and different scenarios are in existence.
影响因子：
10.7
作者：
Galor, O;Weil, DN
通讯作者：
Weil, DN
(2) 研究报告《预测昆虫所偏好的气味》，河北新报，2008 年 6 月 22 日
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