The Impact of Global Warming on Rural-Urban Migrations: Evidence from Global Big Data
The Impact of Global Warming on Rural-Urban Migrations: Evidence from Global Big Data
复制标题
全球变暖对城乡人口迁移的影响：来自全球大数据的证据
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Akira Sasahara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Peri;Akira Sasahara
本文利用1970-2000年全球56 km × 56 km格网单元数据，以10年为一个周期，研究了气温变化对城乡人口迁移的影响。我们发现，气温上升减少了贫穷国家的农村-城市移民，增加了中等收入国家的此类移民。这些不对称的移徙反应符合一个简单的模型，即城乡收入差异和流动性限制相互作用，决定农村向城市的移徙流动。我们还确认这些温度的影响，使用国家一级的观察，通过汇总网格单元水平的数据。我们预测，下一个世纪的预期变暖将鼓励阿根廷等中等收入国家的进一步城市化，但它将减缓马拉维和尼日尔等贫穷国家的城市转型。
This paper examines the impact of temperature changes on rural-urban migration using a 56km×56km grid cell level dataset covering the whole world at 10-year frequency during the period 1970-2000. We find that rising temperatures reduce rural-urban migration in poor countries and increase such migration in middle-income countries. These asymmetric migration responses are consistent with a simple model where rural-urban earnings differentials and liquidity constraints interact to determine rural-to-urban migration flows. We also confirm these temperature effects using country-level observations constructed by aggregating the grid cell level data. We project that expected warming in the next century will encourage further urbanization in middle-income countries such as Argentina, but it will slow down urban transition in poor countries like Malawi and Niger.
影响因子：
5
作者：
Henderson JV;Storeygard A;Deichmann U
通讯作者：
Deichmann U