A study on the efficiency of the estimation models of COVID-19.
A study on the efficiency of the estimation models of COVID-19.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104370
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发表时间：
2021-07
影响因子：
5.3
通讯作者：
Al-Anzi AF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alenezi MN;Al-Anzi FS;Alabdulrazzaq H;Alhusaini A;Al-Anzi AF
今天，世界正在与新型冠状病毒（也称为 COVID-19）引起的危险流行病作斗争。所有国家都受到了影响，各国正在努力从 COVID-19 造成的社会、经济和健康破坏中恢复过来。最近的流行病学研究集中在使用不同的预测模型来估计世界各地感染、康复和死亡病例的数量。本研究主要侧重于评估两种常见的预测模型：易感 - 感染 - 康复（SIR）和易感 - 暴露 - 感染 - 康复（SEIR）。对 SIR 和 SEIR 模型在估计疫情和确定预测科威特未来传播的更合适模型方面进行了比较。根据比较结果，选择 SEIR 模型来预测 COVID-19 感染病例、康复病例和累积病例。估算所需的数据是在 2020 年 2 月 24 日至 12 月 1 日期间从科威特政府官方网站收集的。这项研究提供了科威特 COVID-19 高峰日期和预期根除的估计值。使用Python编程语言对收集的数据模拟所提出的估计模型。使用各种基本繁殖数（5.2 至 3 之间）、初始暴露种群和孵化率进行模拟。结果表明，SEIR 模型比 SIR 模型更适合预测感染和康复病例，其值范围为 3 到 4，并且 。
Today, the world is fighting against a dangerous epidemic caused by the novel coronavirus, also known as COVID-19. All have been impacted and countries are trying to recover from the social, economic, and health devastations of COVID-19. Recent epidemiology research has concentrated on using different prediction models to estimate the numbers of infected, recovered, and deceased cases around the world. This study is primarily focused on evaluating two common prediction models: Susceptible – Infected – Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible – Exposed – Infected – Recovered (SEIR). The SIR and SEIR models were compared in estimating the outbreak and identifying the better fitting model for forecasting future spread in Kuwait. Based on the results of the comparison, the SEIR model was selected for predicting COVID-19 infected, recovered, and cumulative cases. The data needed for estimation was collected from official sites of the Kuwait Government between 24 February and 1 December 2020. This study presents estimated values for peak dates and expected eradication of COVID-19 in Kuwait. The proposed estimation model is simulated using the Python Programming language on the collected data. The simulation was performed with various basic reproduction numbers (between 5.2 and 3), the initial exposed population, and the incubation rate. The results show that the SEIR model was better suited than the SIR model for predicting both infection and recovery cases with values ranging from 3 to 4, and .
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