Prolonging the past counteracts the pull of the present: protracted speciation can explain observed slowdowns in diversification.
Prolonging the past counteracts the pull of the present: protracted speciation can explain observed slowdowns in diversification.
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DOI：
10.1093/sysbio/syr091
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发表时间：
2012-03
影响因子：
6.5
通讯作者：
Rosindell J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Etienne RS;Rosindell J
系统发育树显示，到目前为止，谱系数量的增加明显放缓，这一现象不能用物种形成和灭绝速度恒定的多样化的标准生灭模型来解释。相反，出生-死亡模型预测血统的数量将持续或加速增加，这被称为现在的拉力。观察到的减速归因于某种形式的多样性依赖(即物种水平的密度依赖)导致物种形成和灭绝速度的不稳定，但其背后的机制仍不清楚。在这里，我们基于物种形成需要时间完成这一简单概念，提出了另一种解释。我们表明，这种“持久”物种形成的想法可以被纳入多样化的标准生灭模型中。长期生灭模型预测了系统发育中谱系数量增长速度的现实放缓，并提供了一个令人信服的符合四个具有现实参数值的鸟类系统发育。因此，认识到物种形成不是一个瞬时事件这一普遍接受的事实的影响是重大的；即使它不能解释所有观察到的模式，它肯定有很大的贡献，因此应该纳入未来的研究。
Phylogenetic trees show a remarkable slowdown in the increase of number of lineages towards the present, a phenomenon which cannot be explained by the standard birth–death model of diversification with constant speciation and extinction rates. The birth–death model instead predicts a constant or accelerating increase in the number of lineages, which has been called the pull of the present. The observed slowdown has been attributed to nonconstancy of the speciation and extinction rates due to some form of diversity dependence (i.e., species-level density dependence), but the mechanisms underlying this are still unclear. Here, we propose an alternative explanation based on the simple concept that speciation takes time to complete. We show that this idea of “protracted” speciation can be incorporated in the standard birth–death model of diversification. The protracted birth–death model predicts a realistic slowdown in the rate of increase of number of lineages in the phylogeny and provides a compelling fit to four bird phylogenies with realistic parameter values. Thus, the effect of recognizing the generally accepted fact that speciation is not an instantaneous event is significant; even if it cannot account for all the observed patterns, it certainly contributes substantially and should therefore be incorporated into future studies.
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2003.2513
发表时间：
2003-12-07
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Paradis, E
通讯作者：
Paradis, E
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Jablonski, D;Roy, K;Anderson, PS
通讯作者：
Anderson, PS
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Castric, V;Bonney, F;Bernatchez, L
通讯作者：
Bernatchez, L
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2000.1278
发表时间：
2000-11-22
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Pybus, OG;Harvey, PH
通讯作者：
Harvey, PH
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.89.17.8322
发表时间：
1992-09-01
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
NEE, S;MOOERS, AO;HARVEY, PH
通讯作者：
HARVEY, PH