Experimental High-Resolution Forecasting of Volcanic Ash Hazard at Sakurajima, Japan
Experimental High-Resolution Forecasting of Volcanic Ash Hazard at Sakurajima, Japan
复制标题
日本樱岛火山灰危害实验高分辨率预报
作者：
A. Poulidis;T. Takemi;M. Iguchi
提出了一种高分辨率预测日本樱岛火山火山灰危害的方法。该方法采用组合建模方法，并利用樱岛地球物理观测估计的火山爆发源参数，允许在预测中采取主动的方法。天气研究与预报（WRF）模式用于缩小日本气象厅（JMA）在感兴趣地区的预报数据。然后在FALL3D模型中使用高分辨率气象数据来预测火山灰的扩散和沉积。该方法适用于2018年6月16日发生的一次喷发。灰分的直径计观测与灰分分散模型一起用于总粒径分布（TGSD）的选择。然后，使用所提出的方法和估计的TGSD进行了一系列伪预测火山灰扩散模拟，初始化的气象预报数据发布到火山喷发前约13小时，结果显示出惊人的一致性，直到火山喷发前约10小时。利用火山爆发前4小时的预测数据，根据模拟时间和地点的不同，将观测结果限制在2-4的模型比率范围内。还强调了该方法未来的一些关键改进。
A high-resolution forecast methodology for the ash hazard at Sakurajima volcano, Japan, is presented. The methodology employs a combined modeling approach and utilizes eruption source parameters estimated by geophysical observations from Sakurajima, allowing for a proactive approach in forecasting. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to downscale Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast data over the area of interest. The high-resolution meteorological data are then used in FALL3D model to provide a forecast for the ash dispersal and deposition. The methodology is applied for an eruption that occurred on June 16, 2018. Disdrometer observations of ashfall are used along with ash dispersal modeling to inform the choice of the total grain size distribution (TGSD). A series of pseudo-forecast ash dispersal simulations are then carried out using the proposed methodology and estimated TGSD, initialized with meteorological forecast data released up to ∼13 hours before the eruption, with results showing surprising consistency up to ∼10 hours before the eruption. Using forecast data up to 4 hours before the eruption was seen to constrain observation to model ratios within a factor of 2–4 depending on the timing of simulation and location. A number of key future improvements for the methodology are also highlighted.
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Manzella, Irene;Bonadonna, Costanza;Monnard, Helene
通讯作者：
Monnard, Helene
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Bonadonna, Costanza;Folch, Arnau;Puempel, Herbert
通讯作者：
Puempel, Herbert