Nation-scale adoption of new medicines by doctors: an application of the Bass diffusion model.
Nation-scale adoption of new medicines by doctors: an application of the Bass diffusion model.
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DOI：
10.1186/1472-6963-12-248
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发表时间：
2012-08-10
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Coiera E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dunn AG;Braithwaite J;Gallego B;Day RO;Runciman W;Coiera E
新药的采用受到一系列复杂的社会过程的影响，这些社会过程已被广泛审查，具体表现为个人处方医生的信息寻求和决策行为。然而，对于新的医疗实践需要多长时间才能成为主流实践的一部分，在整个人口范围内进行定量分析的情况很少见。我们将Bass扩散模型应用于澳大利亚103种常用处方药的月度处方量(1992至2010年间的月度时间序列数据总计8.03亿张处方)，以确定采用率的分布。我们的目的是测试将Bass扩散模型应用于全国范围的处方数量的实用性。巴斯扩散模型适用于采用澳大利亚国家月度处方量(中位数R2 = 0.97，四分位数范围为0.95至0.99)的广泛横截面药物。接受治疗的中位时间为8.2年( 为4.9IQR12.1)。该模型区分了两类处方模式--一类似乎主要是由外部力量(19种药物)推动的，另一类是主要由社会传染(84种药物)驱动的。那些由内力驱动的人被发现采用时间更短(在按等级进行的非参数方差分析中，p = 为0.02)。Bass扩散模型可以用来回顾澳大利亚处方卷中展示的采用模式，并区分主要由法规等外部力量驱动的采用或由社会传染等内部力量驱动的采用。从引进一种新药到采用处方做法之间的八年延迟表明，澳大利亚的处方做法存在系统惯性。
The adoption of new medicines is influenced by a complex set of social processes that have been widely examined in terms of individual prescribers’ information-seeking and decision-making behaviour. However, quantitative, population-wide analyses of how long it takes for new healthcare practices to become part of mainstream practice are rare. We applied a Bass diffusion model to monthly prescription volumes of 103 often-prescribed drugs in Australia (monthly time series data totalling 803 million prescriptions between 1992 and 2010), to determine the distribution of adoption rates. Our aim was to test the utility of applying the Bass diffusion model to national-scale prescribing volumes. The Bass diffusion model was fitted to the adoption of a broad cross-section of drugs using national monthly prescription volumes from Australia (median R2 = 0.97, interquartile range 0.95 to 0.99). The median time to adoption was 8.2 years (IQR 4.9 to 12.1). The model distinguished two classes of prescribing patterns – those where adoption appeared to be driven mostly by external forces (19 drugs) and those driven mostly by social contagion (84 drugs). Those driven more prominently by internal forces were found to have shorter adoption times (p = 0.02 in a non-parametric analysis of variance by ranks). The Bass diffusion model may be used to retrospectively represent the patterns of adoption exhibited in prescription volumes in Australia, and distinguishes between adoption driven primarily by external forces such as regulation, or internal forces such as social contagion. The eight-year delay between the introduction of a new medicine and the adoption of the prescribing practice suggests the presence of system inertia in Australian prescribing practices.
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影响因子：
5
作者：
Iyengar, Raghuram;Van den Bulte, Christophe;Valente, Thomas W.
通讯作者：
Valente, Thomas W.
影响因子：
120.1
作者：
Cohen, FJ
通讯作者：
Cohen, FJ
影响因子：
5
作者：
Bemmaor, AC;Lee, J
通讯作者：
Lee, J
DOI：
10.1287/mnsc.15.5.215
发表时间：
1969-01-01
期刊：
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE SERIES A-THEORY
影响因子：
--
作者：
BASS, FM
通讯作者：
BASS, FM
DOI：
10.1016/j.ijresmar.2006.01.008
发表时间：
2006-03-01
影响因子：
7
作者：
Jiang, ZG;Bass, FM;Bass, PI
通讯作者：
Bass, PI