Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infection dynamics: re-infections, recrudescences and relapses.

Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infection dynamics: re-infections, recrudescences and relapses.
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DOI:
10.1186/s12936-018-2318-1
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发表时间:
2018-04-17
期刊:
影响因子:
3
通讯作者:
Mueller I
Mueller I
中科院分区:
医学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
White MT;Karl S;Koepfli C;Longley RJ;Hofmann NE;Wampfler R;Felger I;Smith T;Nguitragool W;Sattabongkot J;Robinson L;Ghani A;Mueller I

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在疟疾流行人群中,可以观察到间日疟原虫和恶性疟原虫血液期感染的复杂模式。裂殖子表面蛋白(MSP)变异的纵向队列研究样本的基因分型增加了数据中可用的信息,从而能够识别单个个体中的多个感染寄生虫克隆。使用统计模型分析了来自巴布亚新几内亚和泰国两个纵向队列的MSP基因分型样本,其中每个个体的每个克隆的获取和清除时间是通过数据增强过程估计的。对于被分析的人群,恶性疟原虫血液期感染持续时间在巴布亚新几内亚估计为36天(95%可信区间:29,44)天,在泰国估计为135天(95%可信区间94,191)天。对模拟数据的实验表明,不可能准确估计间日疟原虫血液期感染的持续时间,因为单一血液期感染和由复发引起的多个连续血液期感染之间缺乏可识别性。尽管有这一限制,该方法和数据表明血液期间日疟原虫感染持续时间较短,在巴布亚新几内亚的下限为24天,在泰国为29天。在个人层面上,间日疟原虫的复发不能明确地分为再感染、复发或复发,但可以将概率复发表型分配给每个间日疟原虫样本,从而能够调查流行病学协变量与复发发生率之间的关联。这里开发的统计模型为深入分析纵向队列研究中的疟疾数据提供了一个有用的新工具,未来应用于具有多基因座基因分型的数据集将允许对感染动态进行更详细的调查。本文的在线版本(10.1186/s12936-0182318-1)包含补充材料,可供授权用户使用。
In malaria endemic populations, complex patterns of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum blood-stage infection dynamics may be observed. Genotyping samples from longitudinal cohort studies for merozoite surface protein (msp) variants increases the information available in the data, allowing multiple infecting parasite clones in a single individual to be identified. msp genotyped samples from two longitudinal cohorts in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Thailand were analysed using a statistical model where the times of acquisition and clearance of each clone in every individual were estimated using a process of data augmentation. For the populations analysed, the duration of blood-stage P. falciparum infection was estimated as 36 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 29, 44) days in PNG, and 135 (95% CrI 94, 191) days in Thailand. Experiments on simulated data indicated that it was not possible to accurately estimate the duration of blood-stage P. vivax infections due to the lack of identifiability between a single blood-stage infection and multiple, sequential blood-stage infections caused by relapses. Despite this limitation, the method and data point towards short duration of blood-stage P. vivax infection with a lower bound of 24 days in PNG, and 29 days in Thailand. On an individual level, P. vivax recurrences cannot be definitively classified into re-infections, recrudescences or relapses, but a probabilistic relapse phenotype can be assigned to each P. vivax sample, allowing investigation of the association between epidemiological covariates and the incidence of relapses. The statistical model developed here provides a useful new tool for in-depth analysis of malaria data from longitudinal cohort studies, and future application to data sets with multi-locus genotyping will allow more detailed investigation of infection dynamics. The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-018-2318-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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