Toward a theoretical structure to characterize early probabilistic thinking
Toward a theoretical structure to characterize early probabilistic thinking
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建立表征早期概率思维的理论结构
DOI：
10.1007/s13394-019-00287-w
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
1.8
通讯作者：
Rickards, Megan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Groth, Randall E.;Austin, Jathan W.;Naumann, Madeline;Rickards, Megan
在过去的几十年里，概率在儿童课程中的作用波动很大。最近，一些国家从学前教育和小学课程中删除了概率，而另一些国家则保留了它。缺乏共识的一个原因是，关于早期概率学习的理论仍然相对较新，还在发展中。本报告的目的是勾勒出一个初步的理论结构，有可能锚定课程决策，并为早期概率学习的进一步研究提供信息。为此，我们从回顾现有文献开始。我们特别关注研究人员认为处于学习学科早期阶段的儿童所表现出的概率思维倾向。然后，我们利用这些趋势为早期概率思维设定了两个不同的周期。其中一个循环与学科规范兼容，支持规范性思维；在这个规范兼容循环中的思维倾向包括关注容器中物体的位置，形成随机生成器的图像，关注随机生成器的操作，以及思考过去玩机会游戏的经验。另一个假设循环中的思维倾向导致了与规范的学科实践相冲突的信仰体系；这些信仰体系包括神话、迷信、万物有灵论和决定论等元素。我们使用基于设计的研究的经验数据来说明这两个周期。然后，我们反思了构成我们早期概率思维（SEPT）框架结构的两个周期如何为进一步的课程和理论工作提供基础。
The role of probability in curricula for children has fluctuated greatly over the past several decades. Recently, some countries have removed probability from their preschool and primary curricula, and others have retained it. One reason for such lack of agreement is that theory about early probability learning is still relatively new and under development. The purpose of this report is to sketch a tentative theoretical structure with the potential to anchor curricular decisions and inform further research on early probability learning. Toward that end, we begin by reviewing existing literature. We attend, in particular, to the probabilistic thinking tendencies exhibited by children whom researchers consider to be in the earliest stages of learning the subject. We then use these tendencies to posit two different cycles for early probabilistic thinking. One of these cycles is compatible with disciplinary norms and supports normative thinking; thinking tendencies in this normative compatible cycle include attending to the position of objects in a container, forming images of random generators, attending to the operation of random generators, and thinking about past experiences playing games of chance. Thinking tendencies in the other posited cycle lead to belief systems that conflict with normative disciplinary practice; these belief systems include elements such as myths, superstitions, animism, and determinism. We illustrate the two cycles using empirical data from design-based research. We then reflect on how the two cycles comprising our structure of early probabilistic thinking (SEPT) framework can provide a basis for further curricular and theoretical work.
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