Extreme heterogeneity of population response to climatic variation and the limits of prediction
Extreme heterogeneity of population response to climatic variation and the limits of prediction
复制标题
人口对气候变化反应的极端异质性和预测的局限性
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.14593
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Shapiro, Arthur M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nice, Chris C.;Forister, Matthew L.;Harrison, Joshua G.;Gompert, Zachariah;Fordyce, James A.;Thorne, James H.;Waetjen, David P.;Shapiro, Arthur M.
生物对气候变化反应的某些一般方面，如物候和地理分布的变化，都有很好的特征；然而，尚不清楚观察到的跨类群反应的相似性是否会延伸到其他种群水平的过程中的变化。我们使用涵盖149种蝴蝶和相当大的栖息地多样性(加利福尼亚州从海平面到2700米以上的海拔梯度的10个地点)的长期发病数据(在42年内收集)，研究了种群对气候变化的反应。种群反应的特点是极端的异质性，这不是由于不同地点的物种组成的差异。这些结果表明，栖息地的异质性可能是应对气候变化的缓冲，并突出了关于维持种群间对天气反应差异的机制的重要问题。尽管反应总体上是异质性的，但我们的模型可以准确地预测每个地点许多物种的种群动态。然而，在交叉验证分析中，观察到的发病率和预测的发病率之间的总体相关性是中等的(皮尔逊的r=100.23，SE0.01)，97%的观察数据落在预测的95%可信区间内。对于物种数量较多和年营业额较低的地点，预测最为成功。应对气候变化的人口水平的异质性以及我们的预测能力有限，突显了未来气候多变性日益增加的挑战。
Certain general facets of biotic response to climate change, such as shifts in phenology and geographic distribution, are well characterized; however, it is not clear whether the observed similarity of responses across taxa will extend to variation in other population‐level processes. We examined population response to climatic variation using long‐term incidence data (collected over 42 years) encompassing 149 butterfly species and considerable habitat diversity (10 sites along an elevational gradient from sea level to over 2,700 m in California). Population responses were characterized by extreme heterogeneity that was not attributable to differences in species composition among sites. These results indicate that habitat heterogeneity might be a buffer against climate change and highlight important questions about mechanisms maintaining interpopulation differences in responses to weather. Despite overall heterogeneity of response, population dynamics were accurately predicted by our model for many species at each site. However, the overall correlation between observed and predicted incidence in a cross validation analysis was moderate (Pearson'sr= 0.23,SE0.01), and 97% of observed data fell within the predicted 95% credible intervals. Prediction was most successful for more abundant species as well as for sites with lower annual turnover. Population‐level heterogeneity in response to climate variation and the limits of our predictive power highlight the challenges for a future of increasing climatic variability.
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影响因子：
8.8
作者：
Oliver, Tom;Roy, David B.;Thomas, Chris D.
通讯作者：
Thomas, Chris D.
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Casner, Kayce L.;Forister, Matthew L.;Shapiro, Arthur M.
通讯作者：
Shapiro, Arthur M.
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Espeset, Anne E.;Harrison, Joshua G.;Forister, Matthew L.
通讯作者：
Forister, Matthew L.
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Pardikes NA;Harrison JG;Shapiro AM;Forister ML
通讯作者：
Forister ML
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
HARRISON, S;QUINN, JF
通讯作者：
QUINN, JF