Synchronous population dynamics in California butterflies explained by climatic forcing.
Synchronous population dynamics in California butterflies explained by climatic forcing.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsos.170190
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发表时间：
2017-07
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Forister ML
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pardikes NA;Harrison JG;Shapiro AM;Forister ML
种群生物学的一个长期挑战是理解为什么一些物种的种群规模会独立波动，而另一些物种的种群规模会在空间上同步波动。气候变化和扩散的影响已被用来解释同步种群动态，但对这些驱动因素在自然种群中的相对影响缺乏了解。本文通过对北加州海拔2750米的10个地点的65种蝴蝶进行27年的观测，比较了扩散与气候驱动的种间同步变化模型的支持度。每种蝴蝶所表现出的空间同步性程度以一种独特的方法作为响应，使我们能够研究种间对气候或扩散倾向的响应变化是否最能预测种间同步性变化。我们报告说，对气候敏感性的变化解释了50%的同步种间变化，而分散倾向的变化解释了23%。对厄尔Niño南方涛动（区域气候的主要驱动因素）的敏感性是同步的最佳预测指标。将气候敏感性和扩散倾向结合到一个模型中并没有大大提高模型的性能，这证实了气候敏感性在驱动蝴蝶空间同步性方面的首要作用。最后，我们发现了空间同步性与种群下降之间的关系，这与理论一致，但幅度较小，这表明种群同步波动的程度对理解北加州蝴蝶动物群的持续下降具有有限的作用。
A long-standing challenge for population biology has been to understand why some species are characterized by populations that fluctuate in size independently, while populations of other species fluctuate synchronously across space. The effects of climatic variation and dispersal have been invoked to explain synchronous population dynamics, however an understanding of the relative influence of these drivers in natural populations is lacking. Here we compare support for dispersal- versus climate-driven models of interspecific variation in synchrony using 27 years of observations of 65 butterfly species at 10 sites spanning 2750 m of elevation in Northern California. The degree of spatial synchrony exhibited by each butterfly species was used as a response in a unique approach that allowed us to investigate whether interspecific variation in response to climate or dispersal propensity was most predictive of interspecific variation in synchrony. We report that variation in sensitivity to climate explained 50% of interspecific variation in synchrony, whereas variation in dispersal propensity explained 23%. Sensitivity to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a primary driver of regional climate, was the best predictor of synchrony. Combining sensitivity to climate and dispersal propensity into a single model did not greatly increase model performance, confirming the primacy of climatic sensitivity for driving spatial synchrony in butterflies. Finally, we uncovered a relationship between spatial synchrony and population decline that is consistent with theory, but small in magnitude, which suggests that the degree to which populations fluctuate in synchrony is of limited use for understanding the ongoing decline of the Northern California butterfly fauna.
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影响因子：
4.8
作者：
HANSKI, I;WOIWOD, IP
通讯作者：
WOIWOD, IP
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
Casner, Kayce L.;Forister, Matthew L.;Shapiro, Arthur M.
通讯作者：
Shapiro, Arthur M.
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Haynes, Kyle J.;Liebhold, Andrew M.;Johnson, Derek M.
通讯作者：
Johnson, Derek M.
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
HANSKI, I;PAKKALA, T;LEI, GC
通讯作者：
LEI, GC
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.1997.0069
发表时间：
1997-04-22
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Heino, M;Kaitala, V;Lindstrom, J
通讯作者：
Lindstrom, J