Land cover change explains the increasing discharge of the Paraná River
Land cover change explains the increasing discharge of the Paraná River
复制标题
土地覆盖变化解释了巴拉那河流量的增加
DOI：
10.1007/s10113-018-1321-y
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
P. Moorcroft
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eunjee Lee;A. Livino;Shin‐Chan Han;Ke Zhang;J. Briscoe;J. Kelman;P. Moorcroft
在过去40年中，南美洲巴拉那河流域的流量增加了，尽管没有证据表明该流域的降雨量显著增加。在这项分析中，我们发现，所观察到的几十年的排放量增加可以解释在此期间发生在盆地内的土地覆盖的伴随变化。我们的分析还表明，峰值放电时间可能同时从20世纪70年代的1月/2月转移到最近几十年的3月。虽然土地利用的影响主要改变了河流流量的长期时间动态在几十年来，流量的季节性变化可以归因于土地利用和气候变率的综合影响。本研究表明，在其他南美河流流域的土地改造是目前正在发生的，年平均流量很可能会发生变化，并需要考虑到转移的峰值流量的月份，预测在气候变化和土地改造的水力发电。
Over the past 40 years, the discharge in South America’s Paraná River basin has increased despite no evidence of significant rainfall increases in the basin. In this analysis, we show that the observed multi-decadal increase in discharge can be explained by concomitant changes in land cover that have occurred within the basin during this period. Our analysis also indicates that the peak discharge timing may have shifted concurrently from January/February in the 1970s to March in more recent decades. While land-use effect dominantly alters the long-term temporal dynamics of the river discharge over multi-decades, the change in the seasonality of the discharge can be attributable to the combined effect of the land-use and climate variability. This study suggests that the mean annual discharge is likely to change in the other South American River basins where land transformation is currently taking place, and the shift of the month of peak discharge needs to be taken into consideration to forecast the hydropower generation under changing climate and land conversion.
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Gerten, Dieter;Rost, Stefanie;Lucht, Wolfgang
通讯作者：
Lucht, Wolfgang