The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States.
The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0242476
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Scheff J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu L;Miller HJ;Scheff J
新冠肺炎疫情和相关限制导致美国许多公共交通系统的交通需求大幅下降。本文对这一史无前例的衰退的动力和维度进行了系统分析。使用从一个广泛使用的公交导航应用程序获得的公交需求数据，我们用Logistic函数对日需求下降进行建模，并得出关键参数：基值、明显的最低需求水平以及代表公交需求开始下降的初始日期和降幅减弱的最终日期的悬崖和基点。回归分析显示，在新冠肺炎期间，基本工作者、弱势群体(非裔美国人、西班牙裔、女性和45岁以上人群)比例较高，以及冠状病毒谷歌搜索次数较多的社区往往会保持较高的最低需求水平。大约一半的中介机构在新冠肺炎在当地开始传播之前就已经衰落了；其中大多数位于美国中西部。在当地社区扩张之前，几乎没有一个交通系统结束了衰退期。我们还使用普通的Procrstes距离分析比较了新冠肺炎之前和期间每个系统的每小时需求概况。结果显示，与典型的工作日每小时需求情况有很大偏离。我们的结果为公共交通作为大流行期间的一项基本服务提供了见解。
The COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions led to major transit demand decline for many public transit systems in the United States. This paper is a systematic analysis of the dynamics and dimensions of this unprecedented decline. Using transit demand data derived from a widely used transit navigation app, we fit logistic functions to model the decline in daily demand and derive key parameters: base value, the apparent minimal level of demand and cliff and base points, representing the initial date when transit demand decline began and the final date when the decline rate attenuated. Regression analyses reveal that communities with higher proportions of essential workers, vulnerable populations (African American, Hispanic, Female, and people over 45 years old), and more coronavirus Google searches tend to maintain higher levels of minimal demand during COVID-19. Approximately half of the agencies experienced their decline before the local spread of COVID-19 likely began; most of these are in the US Midwest. Almost no transit systems finished their decline periods before local community spread. We also compare hourly demand profiles for each system before and during COVID-19 using ordinary Procrustes distance analysis. The results show substantial departures from typical weekday hourly demand profiles. Our results provide insights into public transit as an essential service during a pandemic.
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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DOI：
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发表时间：
2005-01-01
期刊：
TRANSIT: PLANNING, MANAGEMENT AND MAINTENANCE, TECHNOLOGY, MARKETING AND FARE POLICY, AND CAPACITY AND QUALTIY OF SEVICE
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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15.1
作者：
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