Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Economics of Climate Change
Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Economics of Climate Change
复制标题
气候变化经济学的临界点和模糊性
DOI：
10.3386/w18230
复制
发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Christian P. Traeger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Lemoine;Christian P. Traeger
当临界点的概率、临界点引起的福利变化以及有关临界点触发的知识都取决于政策路径时，我们对最优政策进行建模。分析结果表明，最优政策如何取决于影响临界点概率和后阈值世界福利的能力。气候经济数值模型的模拟表明，在基本情况规范中，气候系统中可能出现的临界点可使近期最佳碳税增加高达 45%。与没有可能临界点的模型相比，由此产生的政策路径将峰值升温降低了 0.5℃。不同类型的临界点对政策的影响有质的不同，这证明了明确模拟临界点对系统动力学影响的重要性。对阈值分布中模糊性的厌恶可以放大或减弱临界点对最优政策的影响，但在我们的数值模型中，模糊性厌恶会增加最优碳税。
We model optimal policy when the probability of a tipping point, the welfare change due to a tipping point, and knowledge about a tipping point's trigger all depend on the policy path. Analytic results demonstrate how optimal policy depends on the ability to affect both the probability of a tipping point and also welfare in a post-threshold world. Simulations with a numerical climate-economy model show that possible tipping points in the climate system increase the optimal near-term carbon tax by up to 45% in base case speciffcations. The resulting policy paths lower peak warming by up to 0.5 C compared to a model without possible tipping points. Different types of tipping points have qualitatively different effects on policy, demonstrating the importance of explicitly modeling tipping points' effects on system dynamics. Aversion to ambiguity in the threshold's distribution can amplify or dampen the effect of tipping points on optimal policy, but in our numerical model, ambiguity aversionincreases the optimal carbon tax.
影响因子：
1
作者：
SCHELLING, TC
通讯作者：
SCHELLING, TC
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Le Quere, Corinne;Roedenbeck, Christian;Heimann, Martin
通讯作者：
Heimann, Martin