Explaining seasonal fluctuations of measles in Niger using nighttime lights imagery.
Explaining seasonal fluctuations of measles in Niger using nighttime lights imagery.
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1210554
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发表时间：
2011-12-09
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Grenfell BT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bharti N;Tatem AJ;Ferrari MJ;Grais RF;Djibo A;Grenfell BT
西非的麻疹流行病造成了可通过接种疫苗预防的儿童死亡率的很大一部分。流行病具有很强的季节性，但对这些波动的驱动因素知之甚少，这限制了疫情的可预测性和对免疫接种的动态反应。我们发现，麻疹的季节性可以解释人口密度的时空变化，我们通过量化从卫星图像的人为光测量。我们发现尼日尔三个城市的麻疹传播和人口密度高度相关。动态流行病模型，我们证明，人口密度的措施是必不可少的预测在城市一级的流行病进展和改善干预策略。除了流行病学应用外，衡量人口密度精细变化的能力对公共卫生、危机管理和经济发展都有影响。
Measles epidemics in West Africa cause a significant proportion of vaccine-preventable childhood mortality. Epidemics are strongly seasonal, but the drivers of these fluctuations are poorly understood, which limits the predictability of outbreaks and the dynamic response to immunization. We show that measles seasonality can be explained by spatiotemporal changes in population density, which we measure by quantifying anthropogenic light from satellite imagery. We find that measles transmission and population density are highly correlated for three cities in Niger. With dynamic epidemic models, we demonstrate that measures of population density are essential for predicting epidemic progression at the city level and improving intervention strategies. In addition to epidemiological applications, the ability to measure fine-scale changes in population density has implications for public health, crisis management, and economic development.
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影响因子：
4.2
作者：
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通讯作者：
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