A Simple-To-Use Nomogram for Predicting Early Death in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study.
A Simple-To-Use Nomogram for Predicting Early Death in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study.
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DOI：
10.3389/fsurg.2022.871577
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
1.8
通讯作者：
Fu B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen T;Zhan X;Du J;Liu X;Deng W;Zhao S;Jiang M;Xiong Y;Zhang X;Chen L;Fu B
转移性肾细胞癌通常被认为预后较差，早期死亡的风险很高(≤3个月)。我们的目的是开发一个预测肾细胞癌早期死亡的诺模图。访问了SEER数据库，以获得2010至2015年间6,005例肾细胞癌患者的相关信息。他们按7：3的比例随机分为初始队列和验证队列。通过X-Tile分析确定了关于诊断年龄和肿瘤大小的最佳截断点。应用单变量和多变量Logistic回归模型来确定导致早期死亡的显著独立危险因素。建立了一个实用的诺模图，并利用校准图、接收机工作特性(ROCS)曲线和判决曲线分析(DCA)对其进行了验证。有6,005例肾细胞癌患者纳入预测模型，其中1,816例患者经历了早期死亡(在诊断后3个月内死亡)，其中1,687例患者死于肾细胞癌。基于11个重要的危险因素，包括年龄、分级、N分期、组织类型、转移部位(骨、肺、肝和脑)和治疗(手术、放疗和化疗)，制定了一个实用的正常图。AUC值、校正曲线图和DCA分别验证了该模型的有效性、区分性和临床实用性。诺模图在区分肾细胞癌患者早期死亡中可能起重要作用，有助于临床医生个体化用药。
Metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) is usually considered to have a poor prognosis, which has a high risk of early death (≤3 months). Our aim was to developed a predictive nomogram for early death of mRCC. The SEER database was accessed to obtain the related information of 6,005 mRCC patients between 2010 and 2015. They were randomly divided into primary cohort and validation cohort in radio of 7:3. The optimal cut-off point regarding age at diagnosis and tumor size were identified by the X-tile analysis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were applied to determine significant independent risk factors contributed to early death. A practical nomogram was constructed and then verified by using calibration plots, receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). There were 6,005 patients with mRCC included in the predictive model, where 1,816 patients went through early death (death within ≤3 months of diagnosis), and among them 1,687 patients died of mRCC. Based on 11 significant risk factors, including age, grade, N-stage, histologic type, metastatic sites (bone, lung, liver and brain) and treatments (surgery, radiation, and chemotherapy), a practical nomogram was developed. The model's excellent effectiveness, discrimination and clinical practicality were proved by the AUC value, calibration plots and DCA, respectively. The nomogram may play a major part in distinguishing the early death of mRCC patients, which can assist clinicians in individualized medicine.
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DOI：
10.18632/aging.202637
发表时间：
2021-03-03
期刊：
Aging
影响因子：
--
作者：
Yue G;Deyu L;Lianyuan T;Fengmin S;Mei G;Yajun H;Wenwen Z;Lei Y
通讯作者：
Lei Y
DOI：
10.1136/bmj.i6
发表时间：
2016-01-25
期刊：
BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Vickers AJ;Van Calster B;Steyerberg EW
通讯作者：
Steyerberg EW
影响因子：
7.7
作者：
Janssens, A. Cecile J. W.;Martens, Forike K.
通讯作者：
Martens, Forike K.
影响因子：
--
作者：
Sheng X;Lu X;Wu J;Chen L;Cao H
通讯作者：
Cao H
影响因子：
3
作者：
Smaldone MC;Egleston B;Hollingsworth JM;Hollenbeck BK;Miller DC;Morgan TM;Kim SP;Malhotra A;Handorf E;Wong YN;Uzzo RG;Kutikov A
通讯作者：
Kutikov A