Characteristics of intra-, inter-annual and decadal sea-level variability and the role of meteorological forcing: the long record of Cuxhaven
Characteristics of intra-, inter-annual and decadal sea-level variability and the role of meteorological forcing: the long record of Cuxhaven
复制标题
海平面内、年际和年代际变化的特征和气象强迫的作用：库克斯港的长期记录
DOI：
10.1007/s10236-013-0598-0
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
J. Jensen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Dangendorf;C. Mudersbach;T. Wahl;J. Jensen
本文讨论了 1871 年至 2008 年期间气象强迫对库克斯港验潮仪平均海平面 (MSL) 变化的作用。研究发现，季节性海平面在变化和趋势方面均与年度平均值显着不同。通过比较风应力、海平面压力和降水的变化来调查观察到的差异的原因。逐步回归用于估计不同强迫因素对海平面变化的贡献。模型验证和敏感性分析表明，如果有至少 60 至 80 年的数据可用，则可以对回归系数进行稳健且及时的独立估计。根据季节的不同，模型能够解释 54%（春季，四月至六月）和 90%（冬季，一月至三月）观察到的变化。观测到的变化大部分归因于纬向风应力的变化，其中海平面气压、降水和经向风应力的贡献相当小，但仍然很重要。在十年时间尺度上，当地气象强迫的解释力相当弱，这表明剩余的变化归因于北大西洋的远程强迫。尽管气象强迫对季节性时间序列的某些子周期的线性趋势有贡献，但年度长期趋势受到的影响较小。然而，当消除气象影响后，趋势估计的不确定性可以大大降低。使用库克斯港潮汐计观测到的 MSL 时，小于 0.5 毫米/年的标准误差需要 55 年的数据。相比之下，气象校正残差在 32 年后达到了类似的标准误差。
This paper addresses the role of meteorological forcing on mean sea level (MSL) variability at the tide gauge of Cuxhaven over a period from 1871 to 2008. It is found that seasonal sea level differs significantly from annual means in both variability and trends. The causes for the observed differences are investigated by comparing to changes in wind stress, sea level pressure and precipitation. Stepwise regression is used to estimate the contribution of the different forcing factors to sea level variability. The model validation and sensitivity analyses showed that a robust and timely independent estimation of regression coefficients becomes possible if at least 60 to 80 years of data are available. Depending on the season, the models are able to explain between 54 % (spring, April to June) and 90 % (winter, January to March) of the observed variability. Most parts of the observed variability are attributed to changes in zonal wind stress, whereby the contribution of sea level pressure, precipitation and meridional wind stress is rather small but still significant. On decadal timescales, the explanatory power of local meteorological forcing is considerable weaker, suggesting that the remaining variability is attributed to remote forcing over the North Atlantic. Although meteorological forcing contributes to linear trends in some sub-periods of seasonal time series, the annual long-term trend is less affected. However, the uncertainties of trend estimation can be considerably reduced, when removing the meteorological influences. A standard error smaller than 0.5 mm/year requires 55 years of data when using observed MSL at Cuxhaven tide gauge. In contrast, a similar standard error in the meteorologically corrected residuals is reached after 32 years.
影响因子：
14.6
作者：
Martijn Gough
通讯作者：
Martijn Gough