From correlates to causes: can quasi-experimental studies and statistical innovations bring us closer to identifying the causes of antisocial behavior?
From correlates to causes: can quasi-experimental studies and statistical innovations bring us closer to identifying the causes of antisocial behavior?
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DOI：
10.1037/a0026020
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发表时间：
2012-03
影响因子：
22.4
通讯作者：
Odgers, Candice L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jaffee, Sara R.;Strait, Luciana B.;Odgers, Candice L.
纵向的流行病学研究已经确定了青年反社会行为的强大风险因素，包括严厉和强制性的纪律，虐待，怀孕期间吸烟，离婚，青少年父母，同伴偏差，父母精神病理学和社会劣势。然而，由于这些文献主要基于观察性研究，因此尚不清楚这些风险因素是否具有真正的因果关系。确定反社会行为的因果风险因素将为干预工作和测试个体是否对风险暴露有不同易感性的研究提供信息。在本文中，我们确定了观察性研究所带来的因果推理的挑战，并描述了准实验方法和统计创新，这些方法和创新可能会使我们超越对风险因素的讨论，从而实现更强的因果推理。然后，我们回顾了使用这些方法的研究，我们评估是否从观察性研究中发现的强大的风险因素可能在青少年反社会行为的出现和发展中发挥因果作用。对于我们审查的大多数风险因素，有证据表明它们具有因果关系。然而，这些影响通常小于观察性研究中报告的影响，这表明家族混杂、社会选择和错误识别也可能解释风险暴露与反社会行为之间的一些关联。对于某些风险因素（例如，怀孕期间吸烟，父母酗酒问题）的证据是薄弱的，他们对青少年反社会行为的环境介导的影响。我们讨论了这些研究结果的影响，干预措施，以减少反社会行为和反社会行为的病因和过程的基础研究。
Longitudinal, epidemiological studies have identified robust risk factors for youth antisocial behavior, including harsh and coercive discipline, maltreatment, smoking during pregnancy, divorce, teen parenthood, peer deviance, parental psychopathology, and social disadvantage. Nevertheless, because this literature is largely based on observational studies, it remains unclear whether these risk factors have truly causal effects. Identifying causal risk factors for antisocial behavior would be informative for intervention efforts and for studies that test whether individuals are differentially susceptible to risk exposures. In this paper, we identify the challenges to causal inference posed by observational studies and describe quasi-experimental methods and statistical innovations that may move us beyond discussions of risk factors to allow for stronger causal inference. We then review studies that use these methods and we evaluate whether robust risk factors identified from observational studies are likely to play a causal role in the emergence and development of youth antisocial behavior. For most of the risk factors we review, there is evidence that they have causal effects. However, these effects are typically smaller than those reported in observational studies, suggesting that familial confounding, social selection, and misidentification might also explain some of the association between risk exposures and antisocial behavior. For some risk factors (e.g., smoking during pregnancy, parent alcohol problems) the evidence is weak that they have environmentally mediated effects on youth antisocial behavior. We discuss the implications of these findings for intervention efforts to reduce antisocial behavior and for basic research on the etiology and course of antisocial behavior.
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