The effect of ENSO on common bean production in Colombia: a time series approach.
The effect of ENSO on common bean production in Colombia: a time series approach.
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DOI：
10.1007/s12571-022-01290-z
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Barnes, Andrew P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Botero, Hernan;Barnes, Andrew P.
菜豆是哥伦比亚的一种重要主食，具有多种营养成分和环境效益。哥伦比亚普通豆类生产面临的最重要的气候风险是厄尔尼诺/南方涛动，因为它的两个极端阶段-厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜-增加了该区域非生物和生物压力的强度和种类。利用联合国粮食及农业组织（FAO）1991-2018年期间的信息，我们使用Prais-Winsten回归模型测试了2030年前的ENSO是否对哥伦比亚的普通豆类生产产生了负面影响。我们发现，普通豆类的产量受到厄尔尼诺的负面影响，但没有受到拉尼娜的影响。此外，厄尔尼诺/南方涛动引起的短期降水量增长率偏离其长期值，降低了产量，增加了农民从普通豆类生产中获得的收入。这些结果有两个重要的含义。从建模的角度来看，我们发现，降水量与产量和收入的非线性关系，这意味着二阶效应应纳入气候变量对农业生产的影响的任何分析。从政策的角度来看，我们的研究结果表明，有必要采取反周期政策，以抵消哥伦比亚市场上普通大豆的价格飙升，因为当它们发生时，它们往往会过度补偿产量的减少，从而降低普通大豆消费者的购买力和粮食安全。
The common bean is an important staple food in Colombia with diverse nutritional content and environmental benefits. The most important climatic risk confronted by common bean production in Colombia is El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since its two extreme phases —El Niño and La Niña— increase the intensity and variety of abiotic and biotic stresses in the region. Using information from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) for the period 1991–2018, we test whether pre-2030 ENSO has had a negative impact on common bean production in Colombia using a Prais–Winsten regression model. We find that common beans’ yields have been negatively affected by El Niño, but not by La Niña. Moreover, short-run ENSO-induced deviations in the growth rate of precipitation with respect to its long-run value reduce yields and increase farmers’ income from common bean production. These results have two important implications. From a modelling standpoint, we find that precipitation has a non-linear relationship with yields and incomes, implying that second-order effects should be incorporated in any analysis of the effects of climatic variables on agricultural production. From a policy perspective, our results suggest a need for countercyclical polices to counteract price spikes of common beans in the Colombian market since, when they occur, they tend to over-compensate the reduction in yields, which reduce common bean consumers’ purchasing power and food security.
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影响因子：
2.4
作者：
Blanco, Jacobo A.;Barandica, Juan Carlos Narvaez;Viloria, Efrain A.
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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DOI：
10.1007/s11027-012-9432-0
发表时间：
2014-02-01
影响因子：
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