A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming
A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming
复制标题
用于系统评估全球变暖对气候变化影响的新气候数据集
DOI：
10.5194/gmd-6-1689-2013
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
W. Lucht
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Heinke;S. Ostberg;S. Schaphoff;K. Frieler;C. Müller;D. Gerten;M. Meinshausen;W. Lucht
摘要。在正在进行的关于气候变化的政治辩论中，全球平均温度变化（ΔTglob）已成为讨论缓解成本、不可避免的气候变化的影响和适应要求的标准。为了沿着这些思路进行科学的论述，需要系统地评估气候变化影响对ΔTglob的作用。目前可获得的气候变化情景限制了这类评估只局限于一个狭窄的温度变化范围和/或减少的气候模式集合。本文提出了一个新组成的气候变化情景数据集，该数据集解决了全球气候变化影响评估的具体要求，并作为ΔTglob的函数。应用模式标度方法从19个大气-海洋环流模式（AOGCMs）中提取温度、降水和云量的空间显着变化的一般模式。这些模式与从降低复杂性的气候模式MAGICC6中获得的全球平均温度升高情景相结合，创建了2100年左右比工业化前水平高1.5至5度的气候情景。这些模式被证明足以维持原始aogcm的气候变化特性，即使它们必须利用ΔTglob与当地气候特性变化之间的简化关系。与最初的AOGCM模拟相比，该数据集（在本文最终发表时在线提供）涵盖了更广泛和更精细的气候变化情景范围，有助于对气候变化影响进行系统分析。
Abstract. In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.
DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.01.015
发表时间：
2011-05-01
影响因子：
8.9
作者：
Arnell, Nigel W.;van Vuuren, Detlef P.;Isaac, Morna
通讯作者：
Isaac, Morna