ESTIMATING WITHIN-HOUSEHOLD CONTACT NETWORKS FROM EGOCENTRIC DATA.
ESTIMATING WITHIN-HOUSEHOLD CONTACT NETWORKS FROM EGOCENTRIC DATA.
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DOI：
10.1214/11-aoas474
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Halloran ME
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Potter GE;Handcock MS;Longini IM Jr;Halloran ME
急性呼吸道疾病通过社会接触网络传播。大规模的模拟模型被用来预测流行病动态和评估各种干预措施的影响，但这些模型中的接触行为是基于简单和强大的假设，而不是由调查数据提供信息。这些假设也用于估计传播措施，如基本生殖数和二次发病率。发展从调查数据推断接触网络的方法可以改进这些模型和估计方法。我们通过开发一个家庭内部社会联系的模型并使用它来分析比利时POLYMOD数据集，该数据集包含24小时内社会联系的详细日记，从而为这一领域做出贡献。我们通过一个潜在的变量，表明哪些家庭成员在家里的接触行为的依赖模型。我们估计特定年龄的概率是在家里和特定年龄的概率接触条件下的两个成员在家里。我们的结果不同于标准的随机混合假设。此外，我们发现，所有成员在某一天相互联系的概率相当低：对于两个0-5奥尔兹和两个19-35奥尔兹的家庭，为0.49;对于两个12-18奥尔兹和两个36奥尔兹以上的家庭，为0.36。我们发现2-3人家庭的接触率较高，这有助于解释这种规模的家庭中流感继发性发作率较高的原因。
Acute respiratory diseases are transmitted over networks of social contacts. Large-scale simulation models are used to predict epidemic dynamics and evaluate the impact of various interventions, but the contact behavior in these models is based on simplistic and strong assumptions which are not informed by survey data. These assumptions are also used for estimating transmission measures such as the basic reproductive number and secondary attack rates. Development of methodology to infer contact networks from survey data could improve these models and estimation methods. We contribute to this area by developing a model of within-household social contacts and using it to analyze the Belgian POLYMOD data set, which contains detailed diaries of social contacts in a 24-hour period. We model dependency in contact behavior through a latent variable indicating which household members are at home. We estimate age-specific probabilities of being at home and age-specific probabilities of contact conditional on two members being at home. Our results differ from the standard random mixing assumption. In addition, we find that the probability that all members contact each other on a given day is fairly low: 0.49 for households with two 0–5 year olds and two 19–35 year olds, and 0.36 for households with two 12–18 year olds and two 36+ year olds. We find higher contact rates in households with 2–3 members, helping explain the higher influenza secondary attack rates found in households of this size.
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DOI：
10.1214/08-aoas221
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
The annals of applied statistics
影响因子：
--
作者：
Handcock MS;Gile KJ
通讯作者：
Gile KJ
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa0905498
发表时间：
2009-12-31
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
Cauchemez S;Donnelly CA;Reed C;Ghani AC;Fraser C;Kent CK;Finelli L;Ferguson NM
通讯作者：
Ferguson NM
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0706849105
发表时间：
2008-03-25
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Halloran, M. Elizabeth;Ferguson, Neil M.;Cooley, Philip
通讯作者：
Cooley, Philip
影响因子：
2
作者：
GOLDFARB, D
通讯作者：
GOLDFARB, D
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-9868.2005.00524.x
发表时间：
2005-01-01
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Demiris, N;O'Neill, PD
通讯作者：
O'Neill, PD