Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence.
Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-021-25531-5
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发表时间：
2021-09-13
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Klepac P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Davis EL;Lucas TCD;Borlase A;Pollington TM;Abbott S;Ayabina D;Crellen T;Hellewell J;Pi L;CMMID COVID-19 Working Group;Medley GF;Hollingsworth TD;Klepac P
新的证据表明，在英国，接触者追踪在减少 COVID-19 大流行期间的 R 数方面取得的成功有限。我们通过扩展现有的分支过程接触追踪模型、添加诊断测试和细化参数估计来调查潜在的陷阱和需要改进的领域。我们的结果表明，报告和遵守是计划影响最重要的预测因素，但追踪覆盖范围和速度以及诊断敏感性也发挥着重要作用。我们的结论是，实施良好的接触者追踪可以为控制和预防疫情带来微小但潜在重要的好处，使 R 减少高达 15%。我们重申接触者追踪目前不适合作为唯一的控制措施。对英国接触者追踪计划的评估表明，该计划对 COVID-19 控制的影响有限。在这里，作者表明，通过高水平的报告和遵守，接触者追踪可以减少传播，但不应将其用作唯一的控制措施。
Emerging evidence suggests that contact tracing has had limited success in the UK in reducing the R number across the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate potential pitfalls and areas for improvement by extending an existing branching process contact tracing model, adding diagnostic testing and refining parameter estimates. Our results demonstrate that reporting and adherence are the most important predictors of programme impact but tracing coverage and speed plus diagnostic sensitivity also play an important role. We conclude that well-implemented contact tracing could bring small but potentially important benefits to controlling and preventing outbreaks, providing up to a 15% reduction in R. We reaffirm that contact tracing is not currently appropriate as the sole control measure. Evaluations of the UK’s contact tracing programme have shown that it has had limited impact on COVID-19 control. Here, the authors show that with high levels of reporting and adherence, contact tracing could reduce transmission, but it should not be used as the sole control measure.
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