Three Gorges Dam: Impact of Water Level Changes on the Density of Schistosome-Transmitting Snail Oncomelania hupensis in Dongting Lake Area, China.
Three Gorges Dam: Impact of Water Level Changes on the Density of Schistosome-Transmitting Snail Oncomelania hupensis in Dongting Lake Area, China.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0003882
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Jiang QW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wu JY;Zhou YB;Chen Y;Liang S;Li LH;Zheng SB;Zhu SP;Ren GH;Song XX;Jiang QW
血吸虫病仍然是中国和世界范围内的一个重要公共卫生问题。湖北钉螺是日本血吸虫唯一的中间宿主，其变化影响着血吸虫的分布。日本。三峡大坝的建成使洞庭湖区的生态环境发生了巨大的变化。本研究探讨了水位和海拔对钉螺生存和栖息地的影响。收集了4个水文站周围16个滩地的水、活螺密度（来自安乡血吸虫病防治站）和海拔（来自Google Earth）数据。根据海拔高度，将16块洼地分为3组。建立ARIMA模型预测不同海拔地区活螺密度。三峡工程截流前，安乡水文站9年中有7年出现过至少一次超警戒水位，而三峡工程截流后10年中仅3年出现过超警戒水位。2006年和2011年发生了两次严重的干旱，与其他研究年份相比，每年的洪水次数要少得多。总体而言，各海拔地区水位变化与钉螺密度变化存在相关性。三峡工程建成后，各海拔地区活螺密度均呈下降趋势。年淹水次数与活螺密度的关系在中高海拔地区更为明显，2003 - 2014年活螺密度呈持续下降趋势。低海拔地区钉螺密度在2003年后呈下降趋势，2011年后又开始回升。ARIMA模型预测结果表明，洞庭湖区钉螺在未来7年内不会消失。在低海拔地区，活螺密度略有上升，2017年后趋于稳定。中海拔地区活螺密度变化更明显，到2020年仍有上升趋势。在高海拔地区，2015年后钉螺密度将保持稳定。TGD影响了水位，降低了研究区域的洪水风险和活蜗牛的密度。根据我们的预测模型，在所有海拔的活螺密度趋于稳定。控制S.在未来十年，粳稻将继续是该研究领域的一项重要任务。 钉螺是两栖动物，是日本血吸虫唯一的中间宿主。三峡大坝是一项巨大的水利工程，影响着下游动物的生存。研究它有几个原因。首先，血吸虫病仍然是一种世界性的寄生虫病，需要加以预防和控制。第二，TGD引起水位变化，会影响钉螺的生存，但TGD是如何引起钉螺变化乃至血吸虫病流行的还没有揭示。在这项研究中，作者探讨了TGD和蜗牛之间的联系。时间序列资料包括洞庭湖区三峡下游10年以上水位和10年以上活螺密度资料。这有助于了解水位变化与钉螺密度变化的关系。在此基础上，尝试用ARIMA模型对7年后的钉螺密度进行预测。
Schistosomiasis remains an important public health issue in China and worldwide. Oncomelania hupensis is the unique intermediate host of schistosoma japonicum, and its change influences the distribution of S. japonica. The Three Gorges Dam (TGD) has substantially changed the ecology and environment in the Dongting Lake region. This study investigated the impact of water level and elevation on the survival and habitat of the snails. Data were collected for 16 bottomlands around 4 hydrological stations, which included water, density of living snails (form the Anxiang Station for Schistosomiasis Control) and elevation (from Google Earth). Based on the elevation, sixteen bottomlands were divided into 3 groups. ARIMA models were built to predict the density of living snails in different elevation areas. Before closure of TGD, 7 out of 9 years had a water level beyond the warning level at least once at Anxiang hydrological station, compared with only 3 out of 10 years after closure of TGD. There were two severe droughts that happened in 2006 and 2011, with much fewer number of flooding per year compared with other study years. Overall, there was a correlation between water level changing and density of living snails variation in all the elevations areas. The density of living snails in all elevations areas was decreasing after the TGD was built. The relationship between number of flooding per year and the density of living snails was more pronounced in the medium and high elevation areas; the density of living snails kept decreasing from 2003 to 2014. In low elevation area however, the density of living snails decreased after 2003 first and turned to increase after 2011. Our ARIMA prediction models indicated that the snails would not disappear in the Dongting Lake region in the next 7 years. In the low elevation area, the density of living snails would increase slightly, and then stabilize after the year 2017. In the medium elevation region, the change of the density of living snails would be more obvious and would increase till the year 2020. In the high elevation area, the density of living snails would remain stable after the year 2015. The TGD influenced water levels and reduced the risk of flooding and the density of living snails in the study region. Based on our prediction models, the density of living snails in all elevations tends to be stabilized. Control of S. japonica would continue to be an important task in the study area in the coming decade. Oncomelania hupensis, an amphibious animal, is the unique intermediate host of schistosoma japonicum. Three Gorges Dam (TGD) is a tremendous hydrological project, and it influences the survival of animals downstream. It is studied for several reasons. First, schistosomiasis is still a world-wide parasitic disease which needs to be prevented and controlled. Second, TGD causes the change of water level, and it will impact the existence of snails, but how TGD causes the change of snails and even the epidemics of schistosomiasis is not revealed. In this study, the authors explore the association between TGD and snails. The time-series data contains over 10-year water level downstream TGD and 10-year density of living snails downstream TGD in Dongting Lake Region. These can help to find out the relationship between the change of water level and the change of density of living snails. After this exploration, we attempt to predict the density of living snails 7years later using ARIMA model.
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