Spatio-temporal trends and risk factors for Shigella from 2001 to 2011 in Jiangsu Province, People's Republic of China.
Spatio-temporal trends and risk factors for Shigella from 2001 to 2011 in Jiangsu Province, People's Republic of China.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0083487
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Chen F
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tang F;Cheng Y;Bao C;Hu J;Liu W;Liang Q;Wu Y;Norris J;Peng Z;Yu R;Shen H;Chen F
本研究旨在描述中华人民共和国江苏省志贺菌感染率的时空变化趋势。它还打算探索促进志贺氏菌传播的复杂风险模式。使用地理信息系统（GIS）工具获得县级发病率进行分析。建立趋势面和发病率图来描述地理分布。时空聚类分析和自相关分析被用来检测集群。基于志贺菌月发病数，采用自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）模型成功建立了时间序列模型。通过空间相关性分析和病例对照研究，确定志贺菌传播的危险因素。江苏的西南部和西北部地区是感染最严重的地区。江苏西南部为聚集分布（LLR = 11674.74，P<0.001）。 时间序列模型为ARIMA（1，12，0），对2011年8 ~ 12月的病例预测效果较好。公路和水源可能导致志贺菌在江苏省的发展空间变异。病例对照研究证实饭前不洗手（OR = 3.64）和无安全水源（OR = 2.04）是江苏省志贺菌感染的主要原因。 经济发达县要加强环境卫生建设，贫困地区要增加安全饮水。
This study aimed to describe the spatial and temporal trends of Shigella incidence rates in Jiangsu Province, People's Republic of China. It also intended to explore complex risk modes facilitating Shigella transmission. County-level incidence rates were obtained for analysis using geographic information system (GIS) tools. Trend surface and incidence maps were established to describe geographic distributions. Spatio-temporal cluster analysis and autocorrelation analysis were used for detecting clusters. Based on the number of monthly Shigella cases, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model successfully established a time series model. A spatial correlation analysis and a case-control study were conducted to identify risk factors contributing to Shigella transmissions. The far southwestern and northwestern areas of Jiangsu were the most infected. A cluster was detected in southwestern Jiangsu (LLR = 11674.74, P<0.001). The time series model was established as ARIMA (1, 12, 0), which predicted well for cases from August to December, 2011. Highways and water sources potentially caused spatial variation in Shigella development in Jiangsu. The case-control study confirmed not washing hands before dinner (OR = 3.64) and not having access to a safe water source (OR = 2.04) as the main causes of Shigella in Jiangsu Province. Improvement of sanitation and hygiene should be strengthened in economically developed counties, while access to a safe water supply in impoverished areas should be increased at the same time.
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影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Li L;Wang J;Wu J
通讯作者：
Wu J
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
LJUNG, GM;BOX, GEP
通讯作者：
BOX, GEP
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Forrer A;Sayasone S;Vounatsou P;Vonghachack Y;Bouakhasith D;Vogt S;Glaser R;Utzinger J;Akkhavong K;Odermatt P
通讯作者：
Odermatt P
影响因子：
12.7
作者：
Kulldorff, M;Athas, WF;Key, CR
通讯作者：
Key, CR
DOI：
10.1016/j.trstmh.2004.02.008
发表时间：
2005-01-01
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Rego, RF;Moraes, LRS;Dourado, I
通讯作者：
Dourado, I