The role of spatial dependence for large-scale flood risk estimation
The role of spatial dependence for large-scale flood risk estimation
复制标题
空间依赖性在大规模洪水风险估计中的作用
DOI：
10.5194/nhess-2019-393
复制
发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
B. Merz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. D. Metin;N. Dung;K. Schröter;S. Vorogushyn;B. Guse;H. Kreibich;B. Merz
抽象的。洪水风险评估通常基于以下情况
假定整个集水区洪峰的重现期是均匀的。
这一假设对于真实的洪水事件来说是不现实的，可能会偏离风险
对特定退货期的估计。我们调查了三个假设
关于空间相关性对风险估计的影响：(I)空间上
同质情景(完全依赖)，(二)空间异质性
情景(模型化依赖)和(三)空间异质性，但
互不相关的场景(完全独立)。为此，模特链
将区域洪水模型应用于德国易北河流域，
考虑到所有洪水产生过程的时空动态，
从降雨通过集水区和河流系统的过程到破坏
机制。关于空间相关性的不同假设不会
影响预期年损害(EAD)；然而，它们偏向风险
曲线，即损伤的累积分布函数。广为流传
完全依赖的假设大大高估了洪水对
退货期超过约200年的订单为100 %。在……上面
另一方面，对于重现期小于
大约50年后，损失被低估了。高估了
当估计较大区域的风险时，情况会恶化。这项研究证明
表示洪峰和洪峰的空间相关性的重要性
风险评估的损害。
Abstract. Flood risk assessments are typically based on scenarios which
assume homogeneous return periods of flood peaks throughout the catchment.
This assumption is unrealistic for real flood events and may bias risk
estimates for specific return periods. We investigate how three assumptions
about the spatial dependence affect risk estimates: (i) spatially
homogeneous scenarios (complete dependence), (ii) spatially heterogeneous
scenarios (modelled dependence) and (iii) spatially heterogeneous but
uncorrelated scenarios (complete independence). To this end, the model chain
RFM (regional flood model) is applied to the Elbe catchment in Germany,
accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of all flood generation processes,
from the rainfall through catchment and river system processes to damage
mechanisms. Different assumptions about the spatial dependence do not
influence the expected annual damage (EAD); however, they bias the risk
curve, i.e. the cumulative distribution function of damage. The widespread
assumption of complete dependence strongly overestimates flood damage of the
order of 100 % for return periods larger than approximately 200 years. On
the other hand, for small and medium floods with return periods smaller than
approximately 50 years, damage is underestimated. The overestimation
aggravates when risk is estimated for larger areas. This study demonstrates
the importance of representing the spatial dependence of flood peaks and
damage for risk assessments.
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
D. Wyncoll;B. Gouldby
通讯作者：
D. Wyncoll;B. Gouldby