The influence of hospital ward design on resilience to heat waves: An exploration using distributed lag models
The influence of hospital ward design on resilience to heat waves: An exploration using distributed lag models
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医院病房设计对热浪抵御能力的影响：使用分布式滞后模型的探索
DOI：
10.1016/j.enbuild.2014.09.053
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Iddon C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Iddon C
利用每小时的天气数据和两个英国国家卫生服务（NHS）医院站点的11个空间记录的内部温度，开发了预测未来内部温度的分布式滞后模型（DLMs）。病房空间分布在五栋不同类型和年龄的建筑中。在所有dlm中，利用3个外源驱动因素，即先前的内部温度、外部温度和太阳辐射，对内部温度的预测效果最好。dlm对建筑朝向、热质量和遮阳的差异很敏感，并通过将预测结果与2012年夏季记录的内部温度进行比较来验证。结果令人鼓舞，模型数据和记录数据都显示出良好的相关性。为了了解这些空间对热浪的适应能力，dlm使用了2006年炎热夏季记录的天气数据。南丁格尔病房和传统的砖石病房对炎热的天气表现出了非凡的抵抗力。相比之下，轻型模块化建筑预计会出现危险的过热。通过记录短时间内的内部温度，可以创建dlm，以预测许多其他类型的自然通风或混合模式建筑的未来温度，作为评估过热风险的一种手段。
Distributed lag models (DLMs) to predict future internal temperatures have been developed using the hourly weather data and the internal temperatures recorded in eleven spaces on two UK National Health Service (NHS) hospital sites. The ward spaces were in five buildings of very different type and age. In all the DLMs, the best prediction of internal temperature was obtained using three exogenous drivers, previous internal temperature, external temperature and solar radiation. DLMs were sensitive to the buildings’ differences in orientation, thermal mass and shading and were validated by comparing the predictions with the internal temperatures recorded in the summer of 2012. The results were encouraging, with both modelled and recorded data showing good correlation. To understand the resilience of the spaces to heat waves, the DLMs were fed with weather data recorded during the hot summer of 2006. The Nightingale wards and traditional masonry wards showed remarkable resilience to the hot weather. In contrast, light-weight modular buildings were predicted to overheat dangerously. By recording internal temperatures for a short period, DLMs might be created that can forecast future temperatures in many other types of naturally ventilated or mixed-mode buildings as a means of assessing overheating risk.
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